Spotify Technology S.A.

DB:639 Stock Report

Market Cap: €125.9b

Spotify Technology Valuation

Is 639 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 639 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€627.79
Fair Value
1.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
37
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 639 (€620.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€627.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 639 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 639?

Key metric: As 639 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 639. This is calculated by dividing 639's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 639's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio108x
Earnings€1.17b
Market Cap€125.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 639's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 639 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average32.8x
EVD CTS Eventim KGaA
33.1x12.58%€9.8b
BVB Borussia Dortmund GmbH Kommanditgesellschaft auf Aktien
50.8x21.26%€422.7m
DIS Walt Disney
23.7x7.16%US$211.5b
UMG Universal Music Group
23.5x0.34%€49.0b
639 Spotify Technology
108x25.55%€145.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 639 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (108x) compared to the peer average (32.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 639's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
639 108.0xIndustry Avg. 17.2xNo. of Companies13PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 639 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (108x) compared to the European Entertainment industry average (17.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 639's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

639 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio108x
Fair PE Ratio49.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 639 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (108x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 639 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€620.90
€597.23
-3.81%
13.22%€776.61€400.88n/a37
Jun ’26€565.20
€583.80
+3.29%
11.31%€701.76€400.88n/a38
May ’26€543.50
€581.29
+6.95%
11.89%€701.76€400.88n/a38
Apr ’26€511.20
€619.50
+21.18%
13.72%€703.57€411.34n/a36
Mar ’26€580.40
€612.40
+5.51%
17.42%€703.57€224.05n/a34
Feb ’26€534.10
€479.92
-10.14%
17.13%€625.37€224.05n/a34
Jan ’26€435.00
€459.10
+5.54%
14.80%€582.96€224.05n/a35
Dec ’25€450.10
€452.86
+0.61%
14.33%€582.96€224.05n/a34
Nov ’25€357.70
€369.90
+3.41%
13.29%€457.88€224.05n/a34
Oct ’25€329.15
€357.37
+8.57%
13.48%€457.88€224.05n/a35
Sep ’25€308.50
€357.73
+15.96%
13.11%€423.75€224.05n/a33
Aug ’25€322.35
€355.69
+10.34%
13.10%€423.75€225.67n/a33
Jul ’25€294.20
€322.15
+9.50%
13.72%€374.52€196.62n/a31
Jun ’25€271.30
€317.26
+16.94%
14.27%€373.84€196.62€565.2032
May ’25€269.50
€311.72
+15.67%
15.69%€373.84€196.62€543.5033
Apr ’25€249.00
€249.52
+0.21%
14.16%€307.07€151.87€511.2033
Mar ’25€242.00
€245.99
+1.65%
13.60%€307.07€151.87€580.4032
Feb ’25€202.00
€202.67
+0.33%
14.91%€279.24€151.87€534.1030
Jan ’25€172.60
€193.16
+11.91%
15.43%€279.24€138.37€435.0030
Dec ’24€167.00
€174.73
+4.63%
12.99%€236.10€126.43€450.1029
Nov ’24€155.80
€172.09
+10.46%
14.96%€236.10€99.57€357.7030
Oct ’24€147.80
€157.31
+6.44%
15.18%€228.65€99.57€329.1530
Sep ’24€146.40
€154.29
+5.39%
15.51%€228.65€99.57€308.5031
Aug ’24€138.00
€154.86
+12.22%
15.22%€226.30€98.44€322.3532
Jul ’24€146.60
€146.69
+0.062%
13.09%€174.21€98.59€294.2031
Jun ’24€137.40
€143.45
+4.40%
12.66%€168.44€98.59€271.3030
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 37 Analysts
€601.20
Fair Value
3.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
37
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/06/22 22:28
End of Day Share Price 2025/06/20 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 75 analysts. 35 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William Noel MilnerArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
Samuel LourenszArete Research Services LLP