Bastei Lübbe AG Just Beat EPS By 5.1%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Bastei Lübbe AG (ETR:BST) recently reported its full-year numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €96m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Bastei Lübbe surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.83 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Bastei Lübbe

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the dual analysts covering Bastei Lübbe, is for revenues of €91.0m in 2023, which would reflect a discernible 5.1% reduction in Bastei Lübbe's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 42% to €0.48 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €100.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.59 in 2023. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their sales forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 9.1% to €7.97, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 1.0% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 5.1% decline in revenue until the end of 2023. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Bastei Lübbe to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bastei Lübbe. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Bastei Lübbe's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Bastei Lübbe you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.