Spotify Technology S.A.

XTRA:639 Stock Report

Market Cap: €92.2b

Spotify Technology Valuation

Is 639 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 639 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 639 (€458.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€556.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 639 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 639?

Key metric: As 639 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 639. This is calculated by dividing 639's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 639's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio131.5x
Earnings€701.00m
Market Cap€92.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 639's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 639 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.1x
EVD CTS Eventim KGaA
31.6x14.1%€7.9b
UMG Universal Music Group
26.7x6.5%€41.3b
DIS Walt Disney
42.1x19.3%US$209.4b
EDL Edel SE KGaA
7.9x9.7%€97.9m
639 Spotify Technology
131.5x29.6%€96.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 639 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (131.5x) compared to the peer average (27.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 639's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
639 131.5xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 639 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (131.5x) compared to the European Entertainment industry average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 639's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

639 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio131.5x
Fair PE Ratio33.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 639 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (131.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 639 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€458.10
€447.99
-2.2%
15.0%€582.96€224.05n/a34
Nov ’25€355.60
€369.87
+4.0%
13.3%€457.88€224.05n/a34
Oct ’25€334.75
€357.34
+6.7%
13.5%€457.88€224.05n/a35
Sep ’25€306.35
€357.70
+16.8%
13.1%€423.75€224.05n/a33
Aug ’25€314.30
€355.69
+13.2%
13.1%€423.75€225.67n/a33
Jul ’25€291.40
€322.19
+10.6%
13.7%€374.52€196.62n/a31
Jun ’25€270.75
€317.31
+17.2%
14.2%€373.84€196.62n/a32
May ’25€268.45
€311.72
+16.1%
15.7%€373.84€196.62n/a33
Apr ’25€246.50
€249.52
+1.2%
14.2%€307.07€151.87n/a33
Mar ’25€239.50
€245.99
+2.7%
13.6%€307.07€151.87n/a32
Feb ’25€202.00
€202.67
+0.3%
14.9%€279.24€151.87n/a30
Jan ’25€172.00
€193.16
+12.3%
15.4%€279.24€138.37n/a30
Dec ’24€167.60
€174.73
+4.3%
13.0%€236.10€126.43n/a29
Nov ’24€158.00
€172.09
+8.9%
15.0%€236.10€99.57€355.6030
Oct ’24€147.60
€157.31
+6.6%
15.2%€228.65€99.57€334.7530
Sep ’24€145.20
€154.29
+6.3%
15.5%€228.65€99.57€306.3531
Aug ’24€138.60
€154.86
+11.7%
15.2%€226.30€98.44€314.3032
Jul ’24€146.60
€146.69
+0.06%
13.1%€174.21€98.59€291.4031
Jun ’24€140.80
€143.45
+1.9%
12.7%€168.44€98.59€270.7530
May ’24€119.00
€138.09
+16.0%
14.5%€168.44€83.61€268.4530
Apr ’24€122.74
€125.80
+2.5%
17.3%€175.10€83.61€246.5029
Mar ’24€109.54
€122.98
+12.3%
17.8%€170.33€76.02€239.5029
Feb ’24€103.78
€116.55
+12.3%
16.1%€170.33€76.02€202.0029
Jan ’24€72.60
€117.31
+61.6%
18.2%€173.83€86.42€172.0029
Dec ’23€76.76
€118.36
+54.2%
18.4%€173.83€86.42€167.6029
Nov ’23€82.81
€118.41
+43.0%
18.4%€173.83€86.42€158.0029

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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