Metsä Board Oyj

DB:MSRB Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.6b

Metsä Board Oyj Valuation

Is MSRB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MSRB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MSRB (€4.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MSRB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MSRB?

Key metric: As MSRB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MSRB. This is calculated by dividing MSRB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MSRB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio42.5x
Earnings€35.10m
Market Cap€1.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MSRB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MSRB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.5x
SDF K+S
78.5x61.1%€2.0b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.3x37.0%€3.5b
NDA Aurubis
8.7x-6.2%€3.3b
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
10.7x3.5%€706.9m
MSRB Metsä Board Oyj
42.5x53.0%€1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MSRB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.5x) compared to the peer average (31.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MSRB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MSRB 42.5xIndustry Avg. 18.4xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MSRB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.5x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MSRB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MSRB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.5x
Fair PE Ratio29.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MSRB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MSRB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€4.28
€5.71
+33.5%
8.4%€6.40€5.10n/a5
Nov ’25€4.92
€5.95
+21.0%
15.0%€7.60€5.10n/a5
Oct ’25€6.28
€7.43
+18.3%
18.8%€10.00€5.90n/a5
Sep ’25€6.17
€7.55
+22.4%
18.1%€10.00€5.90n/a5
Aug ’25€7.05
€8.08
+14.7%
15.1%€10.00€6.90n/a5
Jul ’25€7.41
€8.36
+12.8%
17.8%€11.00€6.90n/a5
Jun ’25€7.74
€8.36
+8.1%
17.8%€11.00€6.90n/a5
May ’25€6.84
€7.66
+12.0%
9.7%€8.70€6.70n/a5
Apr ’25€7.10
€7.44
+4.9%
13.3%€8.70€6.10n/a5
Mar ’25€6.97
€7.30
+4.8%
12.6%€8.70€6.10n/a5
Feb ’25€7.39
€7.51
+1.7%
12.4%€9.00€6.10n/a5
Jan ’25€7.25
€7.51
+3.6%
13.2%€9.20€6.10n/a5
Dec ’24€7.10
€7.81
+10.1%
14.8%€9.20€6.10n/a5
Nov ’24€7.16
€7.87
+10.0%
15.7%€9.50€6.10€4.925
Oct ’24€7.46
€8.13
+9.1%
12.2%€9.50€6.90€6.285
Sep ’24€7.36
€8.13
+10.5%
12.2%€9.50€6.90€6.175
Aug ’24€7.31
€8.13
+11.2%
14.2%€9.80€6.60€7.055
Jul ’24€6.73
€8.38
+24.5%
13.8%€9.80€6.60€7.415
Jun ’24€7.56
€7.88
+4.3%
12.2%€9.00€6.60€7.745
May ’24€6.60
€8.08
+22.5%
11.4%€9.00€6.60€6.845
Apr ’24€7.47
€9.60
+28.6%
15.3%€12.00€7.80€7.106
Mar ’24€8.26
€9.68
+17.2%
15.3%€12.00€7.80€6.976
Feb ’24€8.19
€10.32
+26.0%
20.4%€14.00€7.80€7.396
Jan ’24€8.80
€10.32
+17.2%
20.4%€14.00€7.80€7.256
Dec ’23€8.58
€10.20
+19.0%
22.1%€14.00€7.10€7.106
Nov ’23€7.67
€10.20
+33.0%
22.1%€14.00€7.10€7.166

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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