Orica Limited

DB:ICA Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.5b

Orica Valuation

Is ICA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ICA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ICA (€11.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€23.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ICA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ICA?

Key metric: As ICA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ICA. This is calculated by dividing ICA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ICA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17x
EarningsAU$524.60m
Market CapAU$8.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ICA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ICA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.7x
FPE3 Fuchs
19x8.9%€5.0b
SIM0 SIMONA
10.9xn/a€354.0m
EVK Evonik Industries
35.6x33.1%€8.2b
WCH Wacker Chemie
29.1x37.0%€3.6b
ICA Orica
17x8.4%€8.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ICA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the peer average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ICA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ICA 17.0xIndustry Avg. 17.1xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ICA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the European Chemicals industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ICA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ICA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17x
Fair PE Ratio14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ICA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ICA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.20
€12.66
+13.1%
7.1%€14.13€10.75n/a14
Nov ’25€10.30
€12.49
+21.3%
6.2%€13.62€10.83n/a14
Oct ’25€11.10
€12.38
+11.5%
6.0%€13.48€10.72n/a14
Sep ’25€10.80
€12.06
+11.7%
6.5%€13.14€10.15n/a14
Aug ’25€10.80
€12.54
+16.1%
6.4%€13.70€10.59n/a14
Jul ’25€10.70
€12.32
+15.1%
6.4%€13.45€10.39n/a14
Jun ’25€11.10
€12.32
+10.9%
6.4%€13.45€10.39n/a14
May ’25€10.90
€11.16
+2.4%
10.4%€12.15€7.59n/a13
Apr ’25€10.90
€11.04
+1.3%
6.8%€12.89€9.89n/a12
Mar ’25€10.10
€11.08
+9.7%
6.8%€12.93€9.92n/a12
Feb ’25€9.55
€11.22
+17.5%
6.4%€12.36€10.20n/a13
Jan ’25€9.65
€11.22
+16.2%
6.4%€12.36€10.20n/a13
Dec ’24€9.20
€10.64
+15.6%
8.6%€11.99€8.31n/a15
Nov ’24€8.45
€10.60
+25.4%
8.3%€11.95€8.34€10.3014
Oct ’24€9.35
€10.69
+14.3%
8.1%€12.00€8.38€11.1014
Sep ’24€9.05
€10.46
+15.6%
9.0%€12.06€8.23€10.8015
Aug ’24€9.35
€10.64
+13.8%
9.4%€12.32€8.41€10.8014
Jul ’24€8.90
€10.69
+20.1%
9.4%€12.39€8.46€10.7014
Jun ’24€9.15
€10.69
+16.8%
9.4%€12.39€8.46€11.1014
May ’24€9.70
€10.12
+4.4%
7.4%€11.43€8.89€10.9013
Apr ’24€9.40
€10.20
+8.5%
7.4%€11.58€9.01€10.9013
Mar ’24€10.30
€10.62
+3.1%
7.2%€11.93€9.39€10.1013
Feb ’24€9.55
€10.62
+11.2%
7.2%€11.93€9.39€9.5513
Jan ’24€9.50
€10.62
+11.8%
7.2%€11.93€9.39€9.6513
Dec ’23€9.60
€10.57
+10.1%
7.7%€11.98€9.42€9.2013
Nov ’23€9.00
€10.43
+15.9%
6.6%€11.53€9.43€8.4513

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Arkema

€5.8b

Manufactures and sells specialty chemicals and advanced materials worldwide.

V1S

€75.00

7D

-2.2%

1Y

-17.9%

Transcontinental

CA$1.4b

Engages in the flexible packaging business in Canada, the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.

53L

CA$11.10

7D

-1.8%

1Y

53.1%

Trinseo

US$120.4m

Operates as a specialty material solutions provider in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally.

3XD

US$3.10

7D

-2.5%

1Y

-48.8%