ENCE Energía y Celulosa, S.A.

DB:ENCA Stock Report

Market Cap: €670.7m

ENCE Energía y Celulosa Valuation

Is ENCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ENCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ENCA (€2.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ENCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ENCA?

Key metric: As ENCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ENCA. This is calculated by dividing ENCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ENCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.1x
Earnings€44.28m
Market Cap€670.71m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ENCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ENCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28x
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
10.7x3.5%€706.9m
ACT AlzChem Group
11.5x12.8%€578.0m
SIM0 SIMONA
11.1xn/a€348.0m
SDF K+S
78.5x61.1%€2.0b
ENCA ENCE Energía y Celulosa
15.1x18.6%€670.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ENCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the peer average (28x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ENCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Forestry Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ENCA 15.1xIndustry Avg. 10.4xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ENCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the European Forestry industry average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ENCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ENCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.1x
Fair PE Ratio14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ENCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ENCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.77
€4.15
+49.8%
10.3%€5.10€3.65n/a8
Nov ’25€2.83
€4.14
+46.4%
11.9%€5.10€3.45n/a9
Oct ’25€2.96
€4.28
+44.5%
12.5%€5.10€3.45n/a9
Sep ’25€3.05
€4.32
+41.8%
11.3%€5.10€3.45n/a9
Aug ’25€3.20
€4.32
+34.9%
11.3%€5.10€3.45n/a9
Jul ’25€3.46
€4.21
+21.6%
10.9%€5.10€3.45n/a9
Jun ’25€3.35
€4.06
+21.4%
7.4%€4.60€3.45n/a9
May ’25€3.35
€4.04
+20.7%
6.9%€4.50€3.45n/a9
Apr ’25€3.17
€3.86
+21.6%
14.7%€4.30€2.45n/a9
Mar ’25€2.85
€3.82
+34.1%
14.3%€4.20€2.45n/a9
Feb ’25€2.89
€3.82
+32.1%
14.7%€4.50€2.45n/a9
Jan ’25€2.87
€3.81
+32.9%
14.6%€4.50€2.45n/a9
Dec ’24€2.89
€3.81
+31.6%
13.8%€4.50€2.45n/a10
Nov ’24€2.69
€3.91
+45.0%
15.7%€4.90€2.45€2.8310
Oct ’24€3.11
€4.07
+30.8%
20.7%€5.80€2.45€2.9610
Sep ’24€2.90
€4.02
+38.8%
21.7%€5.80€2.45€3.0510
Aug ’24€2.73
€4.05
+48.5%
21.4%€5.80€2.45€3.2010
Jul ’24€2.84
€4.26
+49.6%
20.1%€5.80€2.45€3.4610
Jun ’24€2.85
€4.41
+54.8%
21.2%€5.80€2.45€3.3510
May ’24€3.58
€4.45
+24.3%
18.9%€5.80€2.45€3.3512
Apr ’24€3.33
€4.39
+31.7%
21.4%€5.80€2.05€3.1712
Mar ’24€3.56
€4.47
+25.4%
21.8%€5.80€2.05€2.8512
Feb ’24€2.98
€3.93
+32.1%
17.7%€4.80€2.05€2.8912
Jan ’24€2.76
€3.96
+43.6%
17.9%€5.00€2.05€2.8712
Dec ’23€3.11
€3.94
+26.9%
18.0%€5.00€2.05€2.8912
Nov ’23€3.43
€3.99
+16.4%
18.0%€5.00€2.05€2.6912

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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