Billerud AB (publ)

DB:BNF Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.2b

Billerud Valuation

Is BNF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BNF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BNF (€8.49) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€10.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BNF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BNF?

Key metric: As BNF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BNF. This is calculated by dividing BNF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BNF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio40.7x
EarningsSEK 611.00m
Market CapSEK 24.85b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BNF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BNF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.9x
SDF K+S
78.9x61.1%€2.0b
NDA Aurubis
9x-6.2%€3.4b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.3x37.0%€3.5b
FPE3 Fuchs
19.3x8.9%€5.1b
BNF Billerud
40.7x34.6%€24.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BNF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the peer average (33.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BNF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BNF 40.7xIndustry Avg. 18.6xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BNF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BNF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BNF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.7x
Fair PE Ratio22.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BNF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BNF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€8.49
€10.92
+28.6%
11.9%€12.97€8.99n/a6
Nov ’25€7.91
€11.04
+39.6%
11.8%€13.03€9.03n/a6
Oct ’25€10.36
€11.43
+10.3%
10.0%€13.29€9.92n/a6
Sep ’25€9.32
€10.67
+14.6%
13.7%€12.60€7.91n/a7
Aug ’25€9.02
€10.20
+13.2%
15.4%€12.48€7.83n/a7
Jul ’25€8.55
€10.37
+21.3%
14.7%€12.48€8.11n/a6
Jun ’25€9.29
€9.62
+3.5%
18.1%€12.04€7.48n/a6
May ’25€7.59
€8.87
+16.9%
14.0%€11.05€7.40n/a6
Apr ’25€8.13
€9.07
+11.6%
12.9%€11.08€7.74n/a6
Mar ’25€7.88
€9.04
+14.7%
14.5%€11.16€7.35n/a7
Feb ’25€7.97
€9.14
+14.6%
14.4%€11.21€7.38n/a7
Jan ’25€9.12
€9.19
+0.8%
13.9%€11.18€7.45n/a7
Dec ’24€9.15
€9.00
-1.7%
13.9%€10.94€7.30n/a7
Nov ’24€8.56
€8.67
+1.3%
14.0%€10.65€7.10€7.917
Oct ’24€8.56
€7.99
-6.7%
13.8%€9.45€6.33€10.367
Sep ’24€7.42
€7.95
+7.1%
12.1%€9.55€6.51€9.327
Aug ’24€7.36
€7.95
+7.9%
12.1%€9.55€6.51€9.027
Jul ’24€6.79
€8.56
+26.0%
7.0%€9.33€7.72€8.557
Jun ’24€7.13
€9.57
+34.2%
10.5%€11.02€8.02€9.297
May ’24€8.51
€10.01
+17.7%
12.3%€11.90€8.02€7.597
Apr ’24€9.31
€11.37
+22.1%
6.0%€12.05€9.82€8.137
Mar ’24€10.87
€11.82
+8.7%
2.4%€12.18€11.28€7.887
Feb ’24€10.70
€11.95
+11.7%
3.5%€12.58€11.52€7.976
Jan ’24€11.53
€13.36
+15.9%
11.0%€16.07€11.73€9.125
Dec ’23€13.30
€14.77
+11.1%
19.6%€19.72€11.93€9.155
Nov ’23€13.15
€15.12
+15.0%
17.2%€19.70€12.83€8.565

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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