Arch Resources, Inc.

DB:ACCA Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.0b

Arch Resources Valuation

Is ACCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ACCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ACCA (€166.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€242.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ACCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ACCA?

Key metric: As ACCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ACCA. This is calculated by dividing ACCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ACCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.5x
EarningsUS$179.45m
Market CapUS$3.14b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ACCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ACCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.7x
EIS Eisen- und Hüttenwerke
18.5xn/a€202.4m
NDA Aurubis
9x-6.2%€3.4b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.3x37.0%€3.5b
SDF K+S
78.9x61.1%€2.0b
ACCA Arch Resources
17.5x43.3%€3.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ACCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the peer average (33.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ACCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ACCA 17.5xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ACCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ACCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ACCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.5x
Fair PE Ratio29.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ACCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ACCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€166.15
€155.79
-6.2%
10.4%€174.68€132.19n/a6
Nov ’25€134.65
€153.13
+13.7%
13.2%€182.84€127.99n/a6
Oct ’25€123.30
€152.56
+23.7%
12.8%€178.96€125.27n/a6
Sep ’25€121.35
€157.27
+29.6%
12.0%€180.08€126.06n/a6
Aug ’25€135.00
€165.47
+22.6%
9.6%€184.20€142.76n/a6
Jul ’25€141.00
€169.82
+20.4%
6.7%€186.44€153.81n/a6
Jun ’25€155.20
€169.82
+9.4%
6.7%€186.44€153.81n/a6
May ’25€153.35
€169.82
+10.7%
6.7%€186.44€153.81n/a6
Apr ’25€149.45
€169.73
+13.6%
7.2%€184.66€147.73n/a6
Mar ’25€151.95
€175.26
+15.3%
10.3%€206.97€148.50n/a6
Feb ’25€164.75
€175.30
+6.4%
11.7%€211.82€146.08n/a6
Jan ’25€150.90
€166.38
+10.3%
6.9%€183.84€147.07n/a6
Dec ’24€158.80
€166.10
+4.6%
7.1%€184.38€147.50n/a6
Nov ’24€142.60
€168.14
+17.9%
6.1%€180.76€151.42€134.656
Oct ’24€164.00
€169.79
+3.5%
6.6%€186.34€151.34€123.306
Sep ’24€120.10
€156.26
+30.1%
10.4%€181.02€129.96€121.356
Aug ’24€116.25
€154.88
+33.2%
10.4%€179.42€128.81€135.006
Jul ’24€104.25
€154.88
+48.6%
10.4%€179.42€128.81€141.006
Jun ’24€96.22
€170.45
+77.1%
7.5%€187.14€149.71€155.206
May ’24€109.45
€162.08
+48.1%
6.8%€179.69€145.20€153.355
Apr ’24€118.00
€178.78
+51.5%
5.4%€188.19€161.44€149.455
Mar ’24€148.00
€185.90
+25.6%
2.3%€190.76€177.67€151.955
Feb ’24€135.00
€170.87
+26.6%
12.7%€191.81€129.72€164.755
Jan ’24€133.00
€187.87
+41.3%
14.2%€221.80€140.50€150.905
Dec ’23€148.00
€187.87
+26.9%
14.2%€221.80€140.50€158.805
Nov ’23€154.00
€187.87
+22.0%
14.2%€221.80€140.50€142.605

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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