Winpak Ltd.

DB:25W Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.1b

Winpak Valuation

Is 25W undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 25W when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 25W (€32.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€45.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 25W is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 25W?

Key metric: As 25W is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 25W. This is calculated by dividing 25W's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 25W's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15x
EarningsUS$147.68m
Market CapUS$2.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 25W's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 25W vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.9x
SDF K+S
78.7x61.1%€2.0b
NDA Aurubis
9x-6.2%€3.4b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.8x37.0%€3.6b
FPE3 Fuchs
19.2x8.9%€5.1b
25W Winpak
15x6.3%€3.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 25W is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the peer average (33.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 25W's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
25W 15.0xIndustry Avg. 18.2xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 25W is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 25W's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

25W PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 25W is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 25W forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€32.40
€35.83
+10.6%
2.3%€36.72€34.72n/a3
Nov ’25€31.80
€35.83
+12.7%
2.3%€36.72€34.72n/a3
Oct ’25€30.60
€34.07
+11.4%
5.5%€36.70€32.44n/a3
Sep ’25€29.40
€33.68
+14.6%
1.0%€34.01€33.36n/a2
Aug ’25€31.00
€33.68
+8.7%
1.0%€34.01€33.36n/a2
Jul ’25€29.60
€32.35
+9.3%
3.0%€33.33€31.37n/a2
Jun ’25€28.20
€32.35
+14.7%
3.0%€33.33€31.37n/a2
May ’25€29.00
€32.46
+11.9%
3.2%€33.48€31.43n/a2
Apr ’25€27.20
€30.78
+13.2%
1.1%€31.10€30.45n/a2
Mar ’25€26.80
€31.63
+18.0%
3.1%€32.98€30.62n/a3
Feb ’25€28.20
€31.27
+10.9%
3.4%€32.76€30.30n/a3
Jan ’25€26.80
€30.82
+15.0%
0.9%€31.11€30.45n/a3
Dec ’24€25.80
€31.53
+22.2%
0.9%€31.93€31.25n/a3
Nov ’24€25.40
€31.66
+24.7%
1.0%€32.09€31.41€31.803
Oct ’24€26.80
€33.74
+25.9%
4.3%€35.45€31.89€30.603
Sep ’24€26.60
€33.74
+26.9%
4.3%€35.45€31.89€29.403
Aug ’24€27.20
€33.67
+23.8%
3.3%€35.11€32.35€31.003
Jul ’24€27.60
€35.48
+28.5%
4.1%€36.84€33.43€29.603
Jun ’24€29.00
€34.43
+18.7%
4.0%€35.97€32.64€28.203
May ’24€29.80
€34.43
+15.5%
4.0%€35.97€32.64€29.003
Apr ’24€28.00
€35.46
+26.7%
3.0%€36.38€33.97€27.203
Mar ’24€29.00
€35.25
+21.5%
3.0%€36.17€33.76€26.803
Feb ’24€28.20
€35.29
+25.2%
1.6%€35.83€34.50€28.203
Jan ’24€28.60
€40.23
+40.7%
6.0%€44.29€38.38€26.804
Dec ’23€30.60
€40.23
+31.5%
6.0%€44.29€38.38€25.804
Nov ’23€30.40
€40.23
+32.3%
6.0%€44.29€38.38€25.404

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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