Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:1KR using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:1KR DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
DS Smith's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
DS Smith's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
DS Smith's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
DS Smith's earnings are expected to grow by 17.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
DS Smith's revenue is expected to grow by 6.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
DS Smith's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
3/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Miles W. Roberts has been Group Chief Executive Officer of DS Smith plc since May 4, 2010 at DS Smith Paper Limited. He served as Chief Executive at DS Smith Packaging Limited. Mr. Roberts served as the Chief Executive of McBride plc from July 2005 to April 2010 and joined as its Group Finance Director. At McBride plc, he has led a programme to deliver significant growth and improved shareholder value. He was Senior Independent Director of Poundland Group Limited until September 2016 and Independent Non-Executive Director since October 30, 2014. He has been an Executive Director of DS Smith plc since May 4, 2010. He brought to the Board extensive financial experience. He was a Non-Executive Director of Aggreko plc since March 07, 2017. He gained an engineering degree at Bristol University. Following his engineering degree he qualified as chartered accountant.
His Key strengths:
• Clear strategic mindset
• Strong leadership skills
Miles's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Miles's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the DS Smith management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Group Chief Executive & Executive Director
Adrian R. Marsh
Group Finance Director & Executive Director
Investor Relations Director
Group General Counsel & Company Secretary
Group Communications Director
Interim Group Human Resources Director
Head of Packaging - Spain & South East Region and Divisional Chief Executive of DS Smith Kaysersberg
Head of Plastics
Head of Paper & Recycling
Head of Corrugated Packaging
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the DS Smith board of directors is about average.
DS Smith Plc designs and manufactures corrugated packaging and plastic packaging for consumer goods. It provides transit and transport, consumer, retail and shelf ready, online and e-retail, industrial, hazardous, multi-material, inserts and cushioning, and electrostatic discharge packaging products, as well as wrap arounds, trays, and bag-in-boxes; displays and promotional packaging products; corrugated pallets; Sheetfeeding products; packaging machine systems; and Sizzlepak, a stuffing material made of paper, folded in a zigzag shape, and cut into narrow strips, as well as provides packaging consultancy services. The company serves the food and drinks, consumer goods, industrial, e-commerce, e-retail, and converters markets. It also provides various recycling and waste management services, including paper, cardboard, mixed dry, and plastics recycling services; confidential security shredding services; organics and food products; general waste recycling and shredding services; zero waste solutions; and added value services to medium and large corporates, and small businesses in the retail, manufacturing, print and publishing, public, and automotive sectors. In addition, the company offers recycled corrugated case materials and specialty papers; offers related technical and supply chain services; and manufactures and sells flexible packaging and dispensing solutions, rigid packaging solutions, and foam and injection molded products for use in the beverage, automotive, pharmaceutical, fresh produce, construction, and retail industries. It has operations in the United Kingdom, Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central Europe, Italy, North America, Germany, and Switzerland. The company was formerly known as David S. Smith (Holdings) PLC and changed its name to DS Smith Plc in 2001. DS Smith Plc was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
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