Fuchs Petrolub (XTRA:FPE1) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of FPE1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FPE1 (€28.84) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€75.43)

FPE1 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

FPE1 Stock Overview

Fuchs Petrolub SE develops, produces, and sells lubricants and related specialties worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 61.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 11.66% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 3.57% is not well covered by earnings

Fuchs Petrolub Competitors

SIMONA

DB:SIM0

€540.0m

LANXESS

XTRA:LXS

€3.2b

K+S

XTRA:SDF

€4.0b

Covestro

XTRA:1COV

€6.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Fuchs Petrolub
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€28.84
52 Week High	€45.40
52 Week Low	€24.20
Beta	0.85
1 Month Change	5.18%
3 Month Change	2.05%
1 Year Change	-34.39%
3 Year Change	-7.09%
5 Year Change	-38.85%
Change since IPO	2,905.44%

Shareholder Returns

	FPE1	DE Chemicals	DE Market
7D	1.8%	0.7%	1.0%
1Y	-34.4%	-27.4%	-20.4%

Return vs Industry: FPE1 underperformed the German Chemicals industry which returned -27.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FPE1 underperformed the German Market which returned -20.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FPE1's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FPE1 volatility
FPE1 Average Weekly Movement	4.5%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement	5.5%
Market Average Movement	5.6%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.2%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: FPE1 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FPE1's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1931	6,058	Stefan Fuchs	https://www.fuchs.com/group

Fuchs Petrolub SE develops, produces, and sells lubricants and related specialties worldwide. The company offers automotive lubricants, such as biodegradable lubricants, central and mobile hydraulic oils, dry coatings, engine and gear oils, motorcycle/two wheelers, and service fluids, as well as various oils for agriculture sector. It also provides industrial lubricants, including chain lubricants, compressor oils, dry coatings, gear oils, hydraulic oils, machine oils, open gear lubricants, rapidly biodegradable lubricants, refrigeration oils, release agents, slideways oils, industrial oils, textile machine oils, and turbine oils.

Fuchs Petrolub Fundamentals Summary

How do Fuchs Petrolub's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FPE1 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€3.73b
Earnings (TTM)	€245.00m
Revenue (TTM)	€3.10b

16.3x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Is FPE1 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FPE1 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€3.10b
Cost of Revenue	€2.12b
Gross Profit	€984.00m
Other Expenses	€739.00m
Earnings	€245.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.77
Gross Margin	31.74%
Net Profit Margin	7.90%
Debt/Equity Ratio	7.7%

How did FPE1 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.6%

Current Dividend Yield

57%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FPE1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FPE1?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for FPE1. This is calculated by dividing FPE1's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is FPE1's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€3.73b

FPE1 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.9x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FPE1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

FPE1 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for FPE1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.1x
SIM0 SIMONA	13.8x	n/a	€540.0m
LXS LANXESS	12.7x	14.7%	€3.2b
SDF K+S	1.6x	-33.8%	€4.0b
1COV Covestro	4.5x	4.0%	€6.2b
FPE1 Fuchs Petrolub	16.3x	11.7%	€3.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FPE1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (8.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FPE1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FPE1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the German Chemicals industry average (9.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FPE1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FPE1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	16.3x
Fair PE Ratio	18.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FPE1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FPE1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FPE1 (€28.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€75.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FPE1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Fuchs Petrolub forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FPE1's forecast earnings growth (11.7% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.01%).

Earnings vs Market: FPE1's earnings (11.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (8.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FPE1's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: FPE1's revenue (3.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FPE1's revenue (3.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FPE1's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.5%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Fuchs Petrolub performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-2.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FPE1 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FPE1's current net profit margins (7.9%) are lower than last year (10.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FPE1's earnings have declined by 2.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FPE1's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: FPE1 had negative earnings growth (-11.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Chemicals industry average (22.1%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: FPE1's Return on Equity (13.6%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Fuchs Petrolub's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FPE1's short term assets (€1.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (€652.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: FPE1's short term assets (€1.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (€89.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FPE1's net debt to equity ratio (1.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: FPE1's debt to equity ratio has increased from 1.5% to 7.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: FPE1's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (105.7%).

Interest Coverage: FPE1's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (69.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Fuchs Petrolub current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.57%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: FPE1's dividend (3.57%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.47%).

High Dividend: FPE1's dividend (3.57%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.51%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: FPE1's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: FPE1's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (56.6%), FPE1's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (187.7%), FPE1's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Stefan Fuchs (54 yo)

23.58yrs

Tenure

€2,673,000

Compensation

Mr. Stefan Rudolf Fuchs has been the Chairman of Executive Board at Fuchs Petrolub SE since January 2004 and Member of the Executive Board since 1999. He serves Chief Executive Officer of Region North and...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Stefan's total compensation ($USD2.74M) is about average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD2.33M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Stefan's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FPE1's management team is seasoned and experienced (10.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: FPE1's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31