Intact Financial Corporation

DB:I5U Stock Report

Market Cap: €33.2b

Intact Financial Valuation

Is I5U undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of I5U when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: I5U (€184) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€308.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: I5U is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for I5U?

Key metric: As I5U is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for I5U. This is calculated by dividing I5U's market cap by their current earnings.
What is I5U's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.6x
EarningsCA$2.06b
Market CapCA$48.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does I5U's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for I5U vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.7x
HNR1 Hannover Rück
13.2x5.7%€29.6b
TLX Talanx
10.7x5.0%€20.2b
MUV2 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft in München
11.2x2.9%€63.8b
ALV Allianz
11.9x5.9%€112.3b
I5U Intact Financial
23.6x6.4%€48.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: I5U is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the peer average (11.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does I5U's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
I5U 23.6xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies12PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: I5U is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is I5U's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

I5U PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.6x
Fair PE Ratio11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: I5U is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst I5U forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€184.00
€194.37
+5.6%
2.8%€203.59€185.27n/a12
Nov ’25€175.00
€183.25
+4.7%
6.0%€203.36€162.29n/a14
Oct ’25€172.00
€176.09
+2.4%
4.8%€193.10€162.02n/a14
Sep ’25€169.00
€176.09
+4.2%
4.8%€193.10€162.02n/a14
Aug ’25€168.00
€176.44
+5.0%
5.3%€190.37€160.31n/a15
Jul ’25€154.00
€169.10
+9.8%
4.0%€182.72€156.43n/a15
Jun ’25€152.00
€169.93
+11.8%
3.9%€183.47€157.07n/a16
May ’25€154.00
€164.76
+7.0%
5.1%€185.58€150.23n/a16
Apr ’25€149.00
€162.37
+9.0%
4.1%€174.05€150.26n/a16
Mar ’25€154.00
€161.90
+5.1%
3.9%€174.24€150.42n/a16
Feb ’25€144.00
€155.64
+8.1%
4.4%€173.50€145.27n/a15
Jan ’25€137.00
€153.80
+12.3%
3.5%€163.47€143.72n/a15
Dec ’24€142.00
€151.02
+6.4%
3.3%€157.41€141.33n/a15
Nov ’24€132.00
€150.10
+13.7%
4.8%€159.44€132.19€175.0014
Oct ’24€139.00
€152.12
+9.4%
4.7%€160.18€138.59€172.0014
Sep ’24€130.00
€148.50
+14.2%
4.6%€156.86€135.72€169.0015
Aug ’24€133.00
€149.09
+12.1%
6.4%€161.06€120.63€168.0015
Jul ’24€139.00
€152.41
+9.6%
4.9%€162.76€133.67€154.0015
Jun ’24€138.00
€152.29
+10.4%
4.4%€161.57€132.70€152.0014
May ’24€136.00
€150.46
+10.6%
4.5%€161.48€134.57€154.0013
Apr ’24€130.00
€152.39
+17.2%
6.8%€166.24€126.07€149.0013
Mar ’24€135.00
€152.39
+12.9%
6.8%€166.24€126.07€154.0013
Feb ’24€133.00
€152.60
+14.7%
6.0%€163.04€128.10€144.0013
Jan ’24€136.00
€154.08
+13.3%
6.0%€165.99€128.33€137.0013
Dec ’23€143.00
€160.56
+12.3%
5.8%€172.96€133.72€142.0014
Nov ’23€154.00
€158.14
+2.7%
6.6%€168.23€127.27€132.0014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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