Ambac Financial Group Valuation
Is FGPN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
0/6Valuation Score 0/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of FGPN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: FGPN (€11.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€10.94)
Significantly Below Fair Value: FGPN is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FGPN?
Key metric: As FGPN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is FGPN's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 1.5x |
| Sales | US$398.00m |
| Market Cap | US$577.38m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 14.7x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 58.4x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does FGPN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 0.3x | ||
NBG6 NÜRNBERGER Beteiligungs-AG | 0.1x | n/a | €562.2m |
WUW Wüstenrot & Württembergische | 0.2x | n/a | €1.1b |
RLV RheinLand Holding | 0.2x | n/a | €108.3m |
DFV DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung | 0.7x | n/a | €85.3m |
FGPN Ambac Financial Group | 1.5x | n/a | €577.4m |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FGPN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (0.3x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does FGPN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?
| 2 Companies | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FGPN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (1x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is FGPN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 1.5x |
| Fair PS Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FGPN's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €11.60 | €16.10 +38.8% | 11.8% | €17.99 | €14.21 | n/a | 2 |
| Dec ’25 | €11.60 | €16.10 +38.8% | 11.8% | €17.99 | €14.21 | n/a | 2 |
| Nov ’25 | €10.40 | €15.31 +47.2% | 11.8% | €17.11 | €13.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Oct ’25 | €10.00 | €15.31 +53.1% | 11.8% | €17.11 | €13.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Sep ’25 | €10.50 | €14.64 +39.5% | 18.8% | €17.39 | €11.90 | n/a | 2 |
| Aug ’25 | €12.10 | €16.26 +34.4% | 8.6% | €17.65 | €14.87 | n/a | 2 |
| Jul ’25 | €11.80 | €16.26 +37.8% | 8.6% | €17.65 | €14.87 | n/a | 2 |
| Jun ’25 | €16.20 | €16.27 +0.4% | 8.6% | €17.66 | €14.88 | n/a | 2 |
| May ’25 | €13.70 | €15.87 +15.9% | 5.9% | €16.81 | €14.94 | n/a | 2 |
| Apr ’25 | €14.20 | €15.87 +11.8% | 5.9% | €16.81 | €14.94 | n/a | 2 |
| Mar ’25 | €15.10 | €15.87 +5.1% | 5.9% | €16.81 | €14.94 | n/a | 2 |
| Feb ’25 | €15.00 | €15.87 +5.8% | 5.9% | €16.81 | €14.94 | n/a | 2 |
| Jan ’25 | €14.80 | €15.87 +7.3% | 5.9% | €16.81 | €14.94 | n/a | 2 |
| Dec ’24 | €13.50 | €15.87 +17.6% | 5.9% | €16.81 | €14.94 | €11.60 | 2 |
| Nov ’24 | €11.40 | €15.51 +36.1% | 5.9% | €16.42 | €14.60 | €10.40 | 2 |
| Oct ’24 | €11.40 | €15.51 +36.1% | 5.9% | €16.42 | €14.60 | €10.00 | 2 |
| Sep ’24 | €11.80 | €15.51 +31.4% | 5.9% | €16.42 | €14.60 | €10.50 | 2 |
| Aug ’24 | €12.80 | €15.48 +20.9% | 5.9% | €16.39 | €14.56 | €12.10 | 2 |
| Jul ’24 | €12.80 | €15.48 +20.9% | 5.9% | €16.39 | €14.56 | €11.80 | 2 |
| Jun ’24 | €13.00 | €15.48 +19.0% | 5.9% | €16.39 | €14.56 | €16.20 | 2 |
| May ’24 | €14.20 | €15.48 +9.0% | 5.9% | €16.39 | €14.56 | €13.70 | 2 |
| Apr ’24 | €13.70 | €15.94 +16.4% | 5.9% | €16.88 | €15.01 | €14.20 | 2 |
| Mar ’24 | €15.60 | €15.94 +2.2% | 5.9% | €16.88 | €15.01 | €15.10 | 2 |
| Feb ’24 | €15.30 | €15.48 +1.1% | 5.9% | €16.39 | €14.56 | €15.00 | 2 |
| Jan ’24 | €16.00 | €16.14 +0.9% | 5.9% | €17.09 | €15.19 | €14.80 | 2 |
| Dec ’23 | €15.70 | €16.46 +4.9% | 5.9% | €17.43 | €15.50 | €13.50 | 2 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2024/12/22 20:22 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2024/12/20 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2023/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .
Analyst Sources
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Giuliano Anderes Bologna | BTIG |
| Catherine Seifert | CFRA Equity Research |
| Mary Kane | Citigroup Inc |