Direct Line Insurance Group plc

DB:D1LN Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.5b

Direct Line Insurance Group Valuation

Is D1LN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of D1LN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: D1LN (€2.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: D1LN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for D1LN?

Key metric: As D1LN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for D1LN. This is calculated by dividing D1LN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is D1LN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.6x
EarningsUK£302.60m
Market CapUK£2.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does D1LN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for D1LN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.1x
WUW Wüstenrot & Württembergische
26.5x34.6%€1.1b
NBG6 NÜRNBERGER Beteiligungs-AG
13.8x38.4%€576.0m
TLX Talanx
10.8x5.0%€20.4b
HNR1 Hannover Rück
13.2x5.7%€29.6b
D1LN Direct Line Insurance Group
9.6x8.1%€2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: D1LN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does D1LN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
D1LN 9.6xIndustry Avg. 11.8xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: D1LN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is D1LN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

D1LN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.6x
Fair PE Ratio7.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: D1LN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst D1LN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.74
€2.60
-5.2%
19.4%€4.21€1.98n/a14
Nov ’25€1.92
€2.72
+41.2%
15.3%€4.21€2.35n/a17
Oct ’25€2.21
€2.69
+21.3%
15.2%€4.16€2.32n/a17
Sep ’25€2.24
€2.71
+20.6%
16.2%€4.15€2.31n/a17
Aug ’25€2.20
€2.71
+23.1%
16.4%€4.16€2.32n/a17
Jul ’25€2.35
€2.73
+16.1%
15.9%€4.12€2.30n/a16
Jun ’25€2.44
€2.71
+10.9%
15.9%€4.10€2.28n/a16
May ’25€2.16
€2.76
+27.7%
15.9%€4.10€2.28n/a14
Apr ’25€2.26
€2.67
+18.6%
17.8%€4.09€1.99n/a13
Mar ’25€2.34
€2.46
+5.3%
22.7%€4.09€1.75n/a13
Feb ’25€1.95
€2.46
+26.3%
20.8%€4.09€1.75n/a15
Jan ’25€2.10
€2.39
+13.8%
23.4%€4.08€1.75n/a14
Dec ’24€2.24
€2.38
+6.5%
23.6%€4.09€1.75n/a14
Nov ’24€1.67
€2.21
+32.5%
25.9%€4.03€1.73€1.9213
Oct ’24€1.94
€2.31
+19.0%
28.3%€4.08€1.75€2.2113
Sep ’24€1.82
€2.29
+25.8%
26.2%€4.09€1.75€2.2417
Aug ’24€1.69
€2.27
+34.2%
26.4%€4.04€1.73€2.2017
Jul ’24€1.49
€2.34
+56.8%
24.4%€4.06€1.76€2.3518
Jun ’24€1.87
€2.32
+24.4%
24.4%€4.02€1.75€2.4418
May ’24€1.91
€2.31
+20.6%
24.5%€3.96€1.72€2.1618
Apr ’24€1.51
€2.27
+50.5%
26.2%€3.98€1.55€2.2618
Mar ’24€2.03
€2.32
+14.2%
25.6%€3.97€1.61€2.3418
Feb ’24€2.06
€2.53
+22.7%
24.9%€3.99€1.62€1.9518
Jan ’24€2.49
€2.83
+13.5%
17.9%€4.07€1.98€2.1018
Dec ’23€2.43
€2.82
+16.0%
17.7%€4.07€1.98€2.2418
Nov ’23€2.35
€2.86
+21.9%
17.2%€4.06€2.03€1.6719

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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