AIA Group Valuation

Is 7A2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 7A2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 7A2 (€6.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€13.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 7A2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 7A2?

Key metric: As 7A2 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 7A2. This is calculated by dividing 7A2's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 7A2's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsUS$4.83b
Market CapUS$78.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 7A2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 7A2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.1x
MUV2 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft in München
11.9x2.8%€67.9b
WUW Wüstenrot & Württembergische
26.3x34.6%€1.1b
ALV Allianz
12.4x6.1%€117.6b
HNR1 Hannover Rück
13.8x5.7%€31.0b
7A2 AIA Group
16.3x13.9%€611.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 7A2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 7A2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7A2 16.3xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies13PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 7A2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (12.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 7A2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

7A2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio9.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 7A2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 7A2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€6.81
€11.42
+67.8%
8.6%€13.62€9.08n/a18
Nov ’25€7.28
€11.02
+51.3%
8.6%€13.18€8.78n/a18
Oct ’25€8.03
€10.40
+29.5%
7.4%€11.48€8.49n/a18
Sep ’25€6.51
€10.78
+65.6%
15.0%€16.74€8.57n/a19
Aug ’25€6.21
€11.01
+77.3%
14.8%€17.13€8.75n/a19
Jul ’25€6.38
€11.28
+76.9%
13.9%€17.31€8.83n/a20
Jun ’25€7.08
€11.17
+57.8%
13.8%€17.08€8.71n/a20
May ’25€6.89
€11.29
+64.0%
14.0%€17.34€8.85n/a20
Apr ’25€6.20
€11.43
+84.2%
13.1%€17.12€9.45n/a20
Mar ’25€7.36
€11.64
+58.1%
14.3%€17.14€9.45n/a20
Feb ’25€7.16
€11.73
+63.8%
13.6%€17.06€9.41n/a20
Jan ’25€7.58
€11.60
+53.0%
12.7%€16.83€10.07n/a21
Dec ’24€7.74
€11.75
+51.9%
12.9%€16.88€10.12€7.0020
Nov ’24€7.98
€12.08
+51.4%
12.7%€17.52€10.52€7.2819
Oct ’24€7.56
€12.39
+64.0%
12.1%€17.31€10.39€8.0320
Sep ’24€8.13
€12.27
+50.9%
11.9%€17.16€10.19€6.5121
Aug ’24€8.85
€12.23
+38.2%
10.7%€16.90€10.51€6.2123
Jul ’24€9.06
€12.33
+36.0%
10.6%€16.98€10.52€6.3823
Jun ’24€8.93
€12.54
+40.4%
10.5%€17.17€10.67€7.0823
May ’24€9.62
€12.24
+27.2%
10.5%€16.76€10.40€6.8923
Apr ’24€9.48
€12.49
+31.8%
10.9%€17.04€10.58€6.2023
Mar ’24€10.11
€12.73
+25.9%
11.9%€17.49€9.39€7.3625
Feb ’24€10.00
€12.34
+23.4%
13.2%€17.06€8.15€7.1625
Jan ’24€10.36
€12.14
+17.1%
13.9%€17.12€8.33€7.5824
Dec ’23€9.76
€12.03
+23.3%
15.0%€17.43€8.44€7.7424

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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