Aon plc

DB:4VK Stock Report

Market Cap: €79.9b

Aon Valuation

Is 4VK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4VK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4VK (€370.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12102.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4VK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4VK?

Key metric: As 4VK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4VK. This is calculated by dividing 4VK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4VK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio34.9x
EarningsUS$2.44b
Market CapUS$84.40b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4VK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4VK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.8x
MUV2 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft in München
11.3x2.9%€64.6b
ALV Allianz
11.7x5.9%€111.1b
HNR1 Hannover Rück
13.2x5.7%€29.7b
TLX Talanx
10.8x5.0%€20.4b
4VK Aon
34.9x14.3%€84.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4VK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.9x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4VK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4VK 34.9xIndustry Avg. 11.8xNo. of Companies13PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4VK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.9x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4VK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4VK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio34.9x
Fair PE Ratio12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4VK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4VK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€370.50
€369.07
-0.4%
8.5%€419.98€298.76n/a18
Nov ’25€335.70
€353.43
+5.3%
8.1%€398.65€288.84n/a18
Oct ’25€309.30
€313.42
+1.3%
7.9%€373.15€271.05n/a19
Sep ’25€308.80
€310.90
+0.7%
7.7%€373.68€271.44n/a18
Aug ’25€302.00
€310.49
+2.8%
8.8%€382.03€277.50n/a18
Jul ’25€271.40
€295.09
+8.7%
8.7%€379.79€265.76n/a18
Jun ’25€254.60
€295.76
+16.2%
8.7%€380.66€266.37n/a18
May ’25€261.70
€308.73
+18.0%
9.2%€386.90€270.74n/a16
Apr ’25€310.00
€304.45
-1.8%
9.3%€379.34€270.04n/a15
Mar ’25€290.00
€302.77
+4.4%
9.3%€380.79€268.30n/a15
Feb ’25€276.00
€300.74
+9.0%
8.2%€358.41€267.43n/a15
Jan ’25€260.00
€300.14
+15.4%
7.3%€326.88€264.23n/a14
Dec ’24€300.00
€310.61
+3.5%
5.7%€332.81€268.27n/a18
Nov ’24€290.00
€318.59
+9.9%
5.7%€341.11€274.97€335.7018
Oct ’24€310.00
€307.92
-0.7%
6.5%€348.31€252.07€309.3017
Sep ’24€306.00
€307.92
+0.6%
6.5%€348.31€252.07€308.8017
Aug ’24€288.00
€305.43
+6.1%
6.5%€344.70€249.45€302.0017
Jul ’24€314.00
€303.86
-3.2%
5.5%€329.83€251.96€271.4017
Jun ’24€288.00
€309.83
+7.6%
5.6%€336.85€257.32€254.6016
May ’24€300.00
€301.28
+0.4%
6.0%€330.87€250.66€261.7017
Apr ’24€285.65
€302.06
+5.7%
6.9%€334.65€240.62€310.0017
Mar ’24€285.45
€305.72
+7.1%
6.9%€338.82€243.62€290.0017
Feb ’24€290.60
€292.58
+0.7%
7.3%€330.44€237.59€276.0017
Jan ’24€282.10
€289.05
+2.5%
7.8%€338.80€235.28€260.0014
Dec ’23€293.20
€290.53
-0.9%
7.4%€325.12€242.63€300.0014
Nov ’23€281.85
€302.49
+7.3%
7.7%€339.15€253.10€290.0014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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