Fancl Corporation

BST:4P2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.1b

Fancl Valuation

Is 4P2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4P2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4P2 (€17) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€14.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4P2 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4P2?

Key metric: As 4P2 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4P2. This is calculated by dividing 4P2's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4P2's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio47.8x
EarningsJP¥7.07b
Market CapJP¥337.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4P2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4P2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37x
BEI Beiersdorf
37.3x12.7%€27.6b
4927 Pola Orbis Holdings
44.6x12.5%JP¥321.2b
2145 Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic
16.3x24.9%HK$13.3b
4922 KOSÉ
49.9x22.3%JP¥394.8b
4P2 Fancl
47.8x14.7%€337.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4P2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.8x) compared to the peer average (36.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4P2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Personal Products Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4P2 47.8xIndustry Avg. 24.2xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4P2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.8x) compared to the European Personal Products industry average (24.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4P2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4P2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio47.8x
Fair PE Ratio20.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4P2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4P2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€17.00
€15.31
-9.9%
3.9%€15.91€14.72n/a2
Dec ’25€17.30
€14.96
-13.5%
7.0%€16.07€13.41n/a4
Nov ’25€16.50
€14.96
-9.3%
7.0%€16.07€13.41n/a4
Oct ’25€17.10
€15.41
-9.9%
7.0%€16.56€13.82n/a4
Sep ’25€17.10
€15.35
-10.2%
6.8%€16.25€13.57n/a5
Aug ’25€17.70
€14.59
-17.6%
6.8%€15.44€12.89n/a5
Jul ’25€15.50
€14.59
-5.9%
6.8%€15.44€12.89n/a5
Jun ’25€11.40
€14.48
+27.0%
6.2%€15.33€12.79n/a6
May ’25€10.80
€15.89
+47.1%
6.5%€17.89€14.49n/a6
Apr ’25€12.10
€15.89
+31.3%
6.5%€17.89€14.49n/a6
Mar ’25€12.40
€16.58
+33.7%
7.0%€17.96€14.55n/a5
Feb ’25€14.70
€17.84
+21.3%
11.9%€21.86€14.68n/a7
Jan ’25€14.90
€18.48
+24.0%
12.8%€22.57€15.15n/a6
Dec ’24€14.00
€17.47
+24.8%
12.4%€21.60€14.50€17.308
Nov ’24€13.90
€17.42
+25.4%
13.5%€22.07€14.82€16.509
Oct ’24€14.20
€18.11
+27.6%
11.6%€22.18€15.52€17.108
Sep ’24€16.00
€18.11
+13.2%
11.6%€22.18€15.52€17.108
Aug ’24€15.40
€17.27
+12.2%
13.0%€22.29€14.65€17.708
Jul ’24€15.00
€17.20
+14.7%
13.4%€22.58€14.84€15.509
Jun ’24€15.10
€18.76
+24.2%
14.5%€23.34€15.34€11.409
May ’24€15.50
€20.34
+31.2%
13.4%€24.70€16.23€10.809
Apr ’24€16.50
€20.34
+23.3%
13.4%€24.70€16.23€12.109
Mar ’24€16.90
€21.84
+29.2%
25.3%€36.43€16.12€12.4010
Feb ’24€18.10
€22.10
+22.1%
25.2%€36.76€16.26€14.7010
Jan ’24€18.70
€21.82
+16.7%
25.3%€37.07€16.40€14.9011
Dec ’23€18.10
€21.68
+19.8%
24.7%€36.51€16.85€14.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 05:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Fancl Corporation is covered by 22 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mitsuko MiyasakoBarclays
James MoonBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Yuri NishizakiBofA Global Research