Stratec SE (ETR:SBS) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Stratec SE (ETR:SBS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.2% to €21.75 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Stratec reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €60m and statutory earnings per share of €1.32, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Stratec's six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €260.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 14% to €1.09 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €261.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.18 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Stratec

The consensus price target held steady at €33.02, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Stratec, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €46.00 and the most bearish at €27.10 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Stratec shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Stratec's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 1.7% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 0.8% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Stratec to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Stratec. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stratec going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Stratec has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.