Fresenius Medical Care AG Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Shareholders might have noticed that Fresenius Medical Care AG (ETR:FME) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to €42.04 in the past week. Revenues were €4.9b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of €0.94 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Fresenius Medical Care from 17 analysts is for revenues of €20.2b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 2.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 56% to €3.87. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €20.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.89 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Fresenius Medical Care

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €48.18. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Fresenius Medical Care analyst has a price target of €67.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €36.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 2.5% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 4.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that Fresenius Medical Care is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Fresenius Medical Care analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Fresenius Medical Care , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.