Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd.

DB:ABW Stock Report

Market Cap: €15.1b

Asahi Group Holdings Valuation

Is ABW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ABW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ABW (€10.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€30.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ABW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ABW?

Key metric: As ABW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ABW. This is calculated by dividing ABW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ABW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.2x
EarningsJP¥170.36b
Market CapJP¥2.43t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ABW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ABW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.7x
KUL Kulmbacher Brauerei Aktien-Gesellschaft
23.3xn/a€138.4m
CARL B Carlsberg
14.3x12.2%DKK 100.8b
HEIO Heineken Holding
31.9xn/a€17.2b
TAP Molson Coors Beverage
13.3x3.3%US$12.4b
ABW Asahi Group Holdings
14.2x7.5%€2.4t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ABW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ABW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ABW 14.2xIndustry Avg. 17.3xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ABW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ABW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ABW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.2x
Fair PE Ratio21.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ABW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ABW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.01
€14.39
+43.7%
7.2%€16.47€12.81n/a13
Nov ’25€11.20
€14.42
+28.8%
6.7%€16.40€13.37n/a13
Oct ’25€11.32
€14.82
+30.9%
7.0%€17.08€13.75n/a13
Sep ’25€11.32
€14.46
+27.7%
6.1%€16.92€13.62n/a13
Aug ’25€11.02
€14.32
+29.9%
6.1%€16.85€13.56n/a13
Jul ’25€10.77
€13.41
+24.6%
6.0%€15.57€12.69n/a12
Jun ’25€11.20
€13.55
+21.0%
5.4%€15.66€12.92n/a13
May ’25€10.86
€13.76
+26.7%
6.0%€15.97€13.14n/a13
Apr ’25€11.21
€13.88
+23.8%
6.1%€16.04€13.20n/a12
Mar ’25€10.53
€13.90
+32.0%
6.3%€16.25€12.96n/a13
Feb ’25€11.49
€14.05
+22.3%
7.4%€16.81€13.07n/a13
Jan ’25€11.12
€14.42
+29.6%
7.5%€17.31€13.67n/a13
Dec ’24€11.27
€13.92
+23.5%
7.7%€16.71€13.20n/a13
Nov ’24€11.56
€14.14
+22.3%
8.5%€17.22€13.44€11.2013
Oct ’24€11.73
€13.95
+19.0%
7.0%€16.89€12.77€11.3211
Sep ’24€12.14
€13.74
+13.2%
6.3%€16.26€12.67€11.3212
Aug ’24€11.88
€13.63
+14.7%
6.7%€16.06€12.26€11.0212
Jul ’24€11.73
€13.81
+17.8%
5.8%€15.70€12.47€10.7712
Jun ’24€11.91
€13.67
+14.7%
8.7%€16.29€11.61€11.2011
May ’24€11.69
€13.28
+13.6%
10.7%€16.59€11.37€10.8612
Apr ’24€11.33
€13.68
+20.7%
10.9%€17.19€11.77€11.2112
Mar ’24€11.02
€13.17
+19.5%
14.5%€16.76€9.87€10.5314
Feb ’24€9.99
€13.36
+33.7%
16.3%€17.44€10.13€11.4914
Jan ’24€9.67
€13.45
+39.1%
15.0%€17.48€11.34€11.1215
Dec ’23€10.18
€13.40
+31.6%
14.5%€17.21€11.16€11.2715
Nov ’23€9.41
€13.15
+39.8%
13.8%€16.48€10.99€11.5615

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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