SM Energy Company

DB:SJL Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.9b

SM Energy Valuation

Is SJL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SJL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SJL (€42) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€108.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SJL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SJL?

Key metric: As SJL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SJL. This is calculated by dividing SJL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SJL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.2x
EarningsUS$829.13m
Market CapUS$5.17b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SJL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SJL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.7x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
2.8x-8.9%€164.7m
CE2 CropEnergies
82.4xn/a€1.2b
CE2 CropEnergies
15.3x-7.5%€1.0b
CRC California Resources
10.2x-13.4%US$5.4b
SJL SM Energy
6.2x5.2%€5.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SJL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the peer average (27.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SJL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SJL 6.2xIndustry Avg. 8.5xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SJL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SJL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SJL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.2x
Fair PE Ratio20.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SJL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SJL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€42.00
€50.29
+19.7%
11.8%€61.93€40.02n/a14
Nov ’25€37.00
€49.22
+33.0%
11.2%€57.21€38.76n/a15
Oct ’25€35.40
€49.51
+39.8%
14.2%€59.62€34.33n/a15
Sep ’25€41.00
€52.45
+27.9%
14.3%€68.43€41.42n/a16
Aug ’25€40.80
€53.53
+31.2%
14.3%€70.00€42.37n/a16
Jul ’25€40.20
€54.20
+34.8%
13.1%€70.95€44.81n/a16
Jun ’25€45.40
€54.63
+20.3%
12.0%€70.45€47.28n/a14
May ’25€45.40
€54.38
+19.8%
12.8%€71.35€46.94n/a14
Apr ’25€46.14
€46.68
+1.2%
9.6%€55.62€38.93n/a14
Mar ’25€40.32
€42.66
+5.8%
10.9%€53.45€35.94n/a14
Feb ’25€33.52
€42.12
+25.7%
11.7%€53.36€34.96n/a14
Jan ’25€35.16
€43.18
+22.8%
14.2%€56.13€35.31n/a13
Dec ’24€34.41
€45.02
+30.8%
13.0%€56.44€36.41n/a13
Nov ’24€37.20
€47.76
+28.4%
12.6%€60.42€37.76€37.0012
Oct ’24€37.40
€44.53
+19.1%
18.6%€58.96€29.95€35.4012
Sep ’24€38.93
€42.96
+10.4%
19.2%€57.69€29.30€41.0012
Aug ’24€32.92
€39.55
+20.1%
18.5%€53.34€28.93€40.8012
Jul ’24€29.02
€37.37
+28.8%
22.2%€54.10€28.43€40.2012
Jun ’24€24.92
€37.49
+50.4%
22.4%€53.68€27.77€45.4012
May ’24€25.46
€37.83
+48.6%
22.3%€56.51€27.35€45.4012
Apr ’24€25.86
€38.58
+49.2%
18.4%€51.63€29.50€46.1413
Mar ’24€28.61
€42.57
+48.8%
19.6%€57.21€30.01€40.3213
Feb ’24€29.89
€43.90
+46.9%
15.5%€56.44€32.77€33.5213
Jan ’24€31.94
€50.95
+59.5%
14.9%€65.85€38.57€35.1612
Dec ’23€40.76
€53.12
+30.3%
14.7%€67.30€39.42€34.4112
Nov ’23€45.23
€54.95
+21.5%
13.7%€70.90€40.52€37.2012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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