SM Energy Company

DB:SJL Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.7b

SM Energy Valuation

Is SJL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SJL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€101.39
Fair Value
59.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SJL (€41.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€101.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SJL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SJL?

Key metric: As SJL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SJL. This is calculated by dividing SJL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SJL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6x
EarningsUS$829.13m
Market CapUS$4.94b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SJL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SJL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.1x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
3.2x-9.0%€188.4m
CE2 CropEnergies
83xn/a€1.2b
VH2 Friedrich Vorwerk Group
25.1x13.0%€700.0m
CRC California Resources
9.2x-5.0%US$4.9b
SJL SM Energy
6x4.1%€4.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SJL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (30.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SJL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SJL 6.0xIndustry Avg. 8.8xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SJL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SJL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SJL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6x
Fair PE Ratio16.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SJL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SJL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€41.40
€51.80
+25.1%
12.1%€63.13€43.70n/a15
Jan ’26€36.00
€50.60
+40.6%
12.5%€61.98€40.05n/a15
Dec ’25€42.60
€50.75
+19.1%
11.8%€61.93€40.02n/a15
Nov ’25€37.00
€49.22
+33.0%
11.2%€57.21€38.76n/a15
Oct ’25€35.40
€49.51
+39.8%
14.2%€59.62€34.33n/a15
Sep ’25€41.00
€52.45
+27.9%
14.3%€68.43€41.42n/a16
Aug ’25€40.80
€53.53
+31.2%
14.3%€70.00€42.37n/a16
Jul ’25€40.20
€54.20
+34.8%
13.1%€70.95€44.81n/a16
Jun ’25€45.40
€54.63
+20.3%
12.0%€70.45€47.28n/a14
May ’25€45.40
€54.38
+19.8%
12.8%€71.35€46.94n/a14
Apr ’25€46.14
€46.68
+1.2%
9.6%€55.62€38.93n/a14
Mar ’25€40.32
€42.66
+5.8%
10.9%€53.45€35.94n/a14
Feb ’25€33.52
€42.12
+25.7%
11.7%€53.36€34.96n/a14
Jan ’25€35.16
€43.18
+22.8%
14.2%€56.13€35.31€36.0013
Dec ’24€34.41
€45.02
+30.8%
13.0%€56.44€36.41€42.6013
Nov ’24€37.20
€47.76
+28.4%
12.6%€60.42€37.76€37.0012
Oct ’24€37.40
€44.53
+19.1%
18.6%€58.96€29.95€35.4012
Sep ’24€38.93
€42.96
+10.4%
19.2%€57.69€29.30€41.0012
Aug ’24€32.92
€39.55
+20.1%
18.5%€53.34€28.93€40.8012
Jul ’24€29.02
€37.37
+28.8%
22.2%€54.10€28.43€40.2012
Jun ’24€24.92
€37.49
+50.4%
22.4%€53.68€27.77€45.4012
May ’24€25.46
€37.83
+48.6%
22.3%€56.51€27.35€45.4012
Apr ’24€25.86
€38.58
+49.2%
18.4%€51.63€29.50€46.1413
Mar ’24€28.61
€42.57
+48.8%
19.6%€57.21€30.01€40.3213
Feb ’24€29.89
€43.90
+46.9%
15.5%€56.44€32.77€33.5213
Jan ’24€31.94
€50.95
+59.5%
14.9%€65.85€38.57€35.1612
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
€51.10
Fair Value
19.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/20 20:54
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

SM Energy Company is covered by 55 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph AllmanBaird
Jeffrey RobertsonBarclays
Rudolf HokansonBarrington Research Associates, Inc.