Obsidian Energy Ltd.

DB:P13A Stock Report

Market Cap: €420.9m

Obsidian Energy Valuation

Is P13A undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of P13A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: P13A (€5.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: P13A is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for P13A?

Key metric: As P13A is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for P13A. This is calculated by dividing P13A's market cap by their current earnings.
What is P13A's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.5x
EarningsCA$116.50m
Market CapCA$621.99m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does P13A's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for P13A vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.6x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
2.9x-8.9%€167.6m
VH2 Friedrich Vorwerk Group
19.5x12.9%€548.0m
ETG EnviTec Biogas
8.7xn/a€433.6m
CE2 CropEnergies
15.3x-7.5%€1.0b
P13A Obsidian Energy
5.5x15.4%€622.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: P13A is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the peer average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does P13A's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
P13A 5.5xIndustry Avg. 8.7xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: P13A is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is P13A's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

P13A PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.5x
Fair PE Ratio18.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: P13A is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst P13A forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.50
€8.21
+49.3%
12.1%€9.38€6.70n/a4
Dec ’25€5.30
€9.01
+70.1%
17.1%€11.25€6.95n/a4
Nov ’25€5.20
€9.01
+73.2%
17.1%€11.24€6.94n/a4
Oct ’25€4.90
€8.93
+82.2%
21.5%€11.38€6.70n/a3
Sep ’25€6.45
€9.47
+46.9%
17.4%€11.24€7.27n/a3
Aug ’25€6.70
€9.79
+46.2%
14.0%€11.35€8.01n/a3
Jul ’25€6.90
€10.25
+48.6%
10.9%€11.62€8.88n/a3
Jun ’25€6.95
€10.04
+44.5%
9.0%€11.48€9.11n/a4
May ’25€8.30
€10.04
+20.9%
7.8%€11.23€9.19n/a4
Apr ’25€7.55
€8.65
+14.6%
10.0%€9.50€7.46n/a3
Mar ’25€6.55
€8.67
+32.3%
12.0%€9.64€7.23n/a3
Feb ’25€6.25
€8.73
+39.7%
10.9%€9.64€7.23n/a4
Jan ’25€6.15
€9.52
+54.8%
5.1%€10.25€8.88€5.154
Dec ’24€6.90
€9.33
+35.2%
8.5%€10.17€8.14€5.305
Nov ’24€8.05
€9.37
+16.4%
8.5%€10.22€8.18€5.205
Oct ’24€7.75
€9.11
+17.6%
10.9%€10.43€7.65€4.905
Sep ’24€6.50
€7.96
+22.4%
10.1%€8.81€6.43€6.455
Aug ’24€6.40
€7.86
+22.9%
12.1%€8.93€6.18€6.705
Jul ’24€5.30
€7.96
+50.2%
17.4%€9.69€5.88€6.905
Jun ’24€5.40
€8.16
+51.1%
12.6%€9.60€6.86€6.955
May ’24€5.90
€8.37
+41.9%
10.2%€9.19€6.81€8.305
Apr ’24€5.75
€8.04
+39.8%
12.0%€9.14€6.77€7.554
Mar ’24€6.70
€8.27
+23.5%
12.0%€9.41€6.97€6.554
Feb ’24€5.90
€8.34
+41.4%
9.1%€9.33€7.61€6.254
Jan ’24€6.10
€9.86
+61.6%
14.6%€11.54€8.27€6.154

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 15:52
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is covered by 28 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Grant HoferBarclays
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research