Neste Oyj

DB:NEF Stock Report

Market Cap: €11.0b

Neste Oyj Valuation

Is NEF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NEF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NEF (€14.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€43.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NEF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NEF?

Key metric: As NEF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NEF. This is calculated by dividing NEF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NEF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.9x
Earnings€440.00m
Market Cap€10.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NEF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NEF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average32.1x
CE2 CropEnergies
82.4xn/a€1.2b
CE2 CropEnergies
15.3x-7.5%€1.0b
HINDPETRO Hindustan Petroleum
18.3x30.3%₹767.5b
5020 ENEOS Holdings
12.2x10.9%JP¥2.3t
NEF Neste Oyj
24.9x48.0%€11.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NEF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the peer average (32.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NEF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NEF 24.9xIndustry Avg. 9.2xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NEF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NEF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NEF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.9x
Fair PE Ratio44.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NEF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NEF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€14.41
€19.79
+37.3%
20.6%€28.00€13.50n/a20
Nov ’25€14.00
€20.84
+48.9%
23.0%€36.00€13.50n/a20
Oct ’25€16.71
€22.36
+33.8%
20.6%€36.00€16.00n/a20
Sep ’25€21.10
€24.33
+15.3%
22.7%€39.00€17.00n/a20
Aug ’25€18.66
€23.87
+27.9%
23.2%€39.00€17.00n/a20
Jul ’25€16.83
€27.40
+62.9%
25.2%€40.00€19.50n/a20
Jun ’25€19.39
€28.52
+47.1%
25.7%€40.00€19.50n/a21
May ’25€21.43
€33.80
+57.7%
18.9%€45.00€22.00n/a21
Apr ’25€24.92
€37.35
+49.9%
19.2%€49.00€26.00n/a21
Mar ’25€25.30
€38.20
+51.0%
16.4%€49.00€28.00n/a20
Feb ’25€31.78
€43.83
+37.9%
15.9%€59.00€30.00n/a21
Jan ’25€32.40
€44.27
+36.6%
16.2%€59.00€30.00n/a20
Dec ’24€35.11
€44.32
+26.2%
15.7%€59.00€30.00n/a20
Nov ’24€31.47
€44.87
+42.6%
16.4%€59.00€30.00€14.0020
Oct ’24€32.15
€46.77
+45.5%
16.2%€59.00€30.00€16.7120
Sep ’24€34.51
€47.12
+36.5%
16.8%€59.00€30.00€21.1020
Aug ’24€33.68
€47.57
+41.2%
16.6%€59.00€30.00€18.6620
Jul ’24€35.32
€50.47
+42.9%
16.8%€65.00€30.00€16.8320
Jun ’24€35.87
€50.73
+41.4%
15.8%€65.00€30.00€19.3921
May ’24€41.95
€52.87
+26.0%
12.9%€65.00€39.00€21.4320
Apr ’24€44.90
€52.83
+17.7%
13.0%€65.00€39.00€24.9221
Mar ’24€45.66
€52.69
+15.4%
12.5%€65.00€39.00€25.3021
Feb ’24€43.34
€52.05
+20.1%
12.8%€65.00€41.00€31.7821
Jan ’24€43.44
€52.65
+21.2%
12.2%€65.00€42.00€32.4020
Dec ’23€48.04
€52.70
+9.7%
12.0%€65.00€42.00€35.1120
Nov ’23€44.36
€52.65
+18.7%
12.0%€65.00€42.00€31.4720

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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