Neste Oyj

DB:NEF Stock Report

Market Cap: €21.4b

Neste Oyj Valuation

Is NEF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of NEF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: NEF (€27.61) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (€46.41)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: NEF is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NEF?

Key metric: As NEF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NEF. This is calculated by dividing NEF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NEF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29.8x
Earnings€717.00m
Market Cap€21.35b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NEF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NEF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.5x
5020 ENEOS Holdings
13.6x7.23%JP¥3.5t
IOC Indian Oil
4.6x-24.84%₹1.9t
6505 Formosa Petrochemical
18.4x13.08%NT$489.6b
PKN Orlen
25.5x11.43%zł164.0b
NEF Neste Oyj
29.8x10.92%€21.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NEF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.8x) compared to the peer average (15.4x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NEF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NEF 29.8xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies13PE0816243240+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NEF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NEF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NEF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.8x
Fair PE Ratio36.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NEF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NEF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€27.73
€28.48
+2.70%
23.11%€36.00€12.10n/a19
May ’27€29.15
€28.43
-2.48%
22.98%€36.00€12.10n/a19
Apr ’27€26.48
€25.22
-4.77%
23.81%€35.00€12.10n/a19
Mar ’27€21.51
€20.95
-2.59%
15.47%€25.00€12.10n/a19
Feb ’27€21.60
€20.66
-4.34%
17.32%€26.00€12.10n/a19
Jan ’27€19.26
€19.92
+3.43%
16.23%€26.00€12.10n/a19
Dec ’26€16.55
€18.60
+12.36%
16.64%€24.00€12.10n/a20
Nov ’26€17.97
€18.19
+1.22%
16.76%€24.00€12.10n/a20
Oct ’26€15.69
€15.87
+1.12%
16.74%€23.00€11.80n/a20
Sep ’26€16.18
€15.59
-3.62%
15.83%€23.00€11.80n/a20
Aug ’26€13.64
€14.84
+8.80%
20.34%€23.00€10.00n/a20
Jul ’26€11.73
€12.86
+9.59%
26.14%€23.00€8.00n/a20
Jun ’26€9.21
€12.26
+33.03%
29.09%€23.00€8.00n/a20
May ’26€9.42
€12.38
+31.42%
33.18%€26.00€8.00€29.1520
Apr ’26€8.31
€14.07
+69.29%
28.90%€26.00€9.30€26.4820
Mar ’26€8.55
€15.18
+77.49%
24.86%€26.00€10.00€21.5120
Feb ’26€12.32
€18.19
+47.65%
23.40%€28.00€11.50€21.6020
Jan ’26€11.90
€19.22
+61.47%
20.71%€28.00€13.00€19.2620
Dec ’25€14.23
€19.77
+38.90%
20.82%€28.00€13.00€16.5520
Nov ’25€14.00
€20.84
+48.86%
23.01%€36.00€13.50€17.9720
Oct ’25€16.71
€22.36
+33.81%
20.55%€36.00€16.00€15.6920
Sep ’25€21.10
€24.33
+15.28%
22.65%€39.00€17.00€16.1820
Aug ’25€18.66
€23.87
+27.93%
23.25%€39.00€17.00€13.6420
Jul ’25€16.83
€27.40
+62.85%
25.18%€40.00€19.50€11.7320
Jun ’25€19.39
€28.52
+47.11%
25.73%€40.00€19.50€9.2121
May ’25€21.43
€33.80
+57.72%
18.86%€45.00€22.00€9.4221
€28.29
Fair Value
2.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/28 18:33
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/28 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Neste Oyj is covered by 34 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alejandro VigilBanco Santander
Naisheng CuiBarclays
Henry TarrBerenberg