China Shenhua Energy Company Limited

DB:IKF Stock Report

Market Cap: €103.4b

China Shenhua Energy Valuation

Is IKF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IKF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IKF (€4.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€6.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IKF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IKF?

Key metric: As IKF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for IKF. This is calculated by dividing IKF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is IKF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.7x
EarningsCN¥57.76b
Market CapCN¥787.30b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IKF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for IKF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.7x
ETG EnviTec Biogas
8.8xn/a€439.6m
BYAN Bayan Resources
39.9xn/aRp600.0t
601225 Shaanxi Coal Industry
10.9x4.6%CN¥231.3b
COALINDIA Coal India
7.1x5.7%₹2.5t
IKF China Shenhua Energy
10.7x-0.7%€847.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IKF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the peer average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IKF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IKF 10.7xIndustry Avg. 8.3xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IKF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IKF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IKF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.7x
Fair PE Ratio25.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: IKF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IKF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€4.17
€4.37
+5.0%
15.4%€5.17€2.97n/a12
Nov ’25€3.98
€4.39
+10.3%
15.3%€5.18€2.98n/a12
Oct ’25€4.00
€4.36
+9.1%
16.1%€5.39€2.95n/a11
Sep ’25€3.86
€4.52
+17.1%
17.1%€5.34€2.92n/a11
Aug ’25€3.73
€4.58
+22.9%
16.4%€5.33€2.92n/a11
Jul ’25€4.27
€4.24
-0.6%
18.5%€5.38€2.94n/a12
Jun ’25€4.47
€3.95
-11.6%
16.6%€4.97€2.92n/a13
May ’25€3.85
€3.66
-4.9%
13.2%€4.53€2.96n/a14
Apr ’25€3.70
€3.55
-4.3%
10.3%€4.18€2.95n/a14
Mar ’25€3.56
€3.50
-1.4%
9.3%€4.11€2.95n/a13
Feb ’25€3.42
€3.44
+0.5%
12.0%€4.11€2.39n/a14
Jan ’25€3.04
€3.14
+3.4%
13.7%€3.85€2.36n/a13
Dec ’24€2.91
€3.19
+9.8%
14.2%€3.99€2.39n/a13
Nov ’24€2.86
€3.20
+11.9%
14.6%€4.00€2.40€3.9813
Oct ’24€3.03
€3.17
+4.5%
13.4%€3.92€2.41€4.0014
Sep ’24€2.73
€3.13
+14.8%
11.9%€3.69€2.37€3.8615
Aug ’24€2.71
€3.13
+15.6%
12.1%€3.73€2.44€3.7315
Jul ’24€2.78
€3.23
+16.4%
12.6%€4.01€2.46€4.2715
Jun ’24€2.90
€3.26
+12.4%
14.0%€3.94€2.31€4.4716
May ’24€3.05
€3.20
+5.0%
14.1%€3.95€2.31€3.8514
Apr ’24€2.87
€3.26
+13.8%
13.9%€3.99€2.34€3.7015
Mar ’24€2.92
€3.51
+20.4%
12.3%€4.38€2.74€3.5615
Feb ’24€2.77
€3.48
+25.9%
12.9%€4.30€2.69€3.4215
Jan ’24€2.68
€3.62
+35.0%
11.2%€4.42€2.90€3.0415
Dec ’23€2.83
€3.65
+29.3%
11.4%€4.46€2.92€2.9114
Nov ’23€2.69
€3.76
+39.7%
9.5%€4.56€3.05€2.8615

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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