Vermilion Energy Inc.

DB:CVZ Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.5b

Vermilion Energy Valuation

Is CVZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CVZ (€10.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CVZ is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVZ?

Key metric: As CVZ is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CVZ. This is calculated by dividing CVZ's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CVZ's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.3x
SalesCA$1.82b
Market CapCA$2.23b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CVZ's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CVZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
0.7x-3.7%€166.6m
VBK Verbio
0.4x7.7%€690.5m
CE2 CropEnergies
0.8x-14.0%€1.0b
VH2 Friedrich Vorwerk Group
1.3x10.2%€558.0m
CVZ Vermilion Energy
1.3x0.4%€2.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CVZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CVZ's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

19 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CVZ 1.3xIndustry Avg. 1.2xNo. of Companies19PS00.81.62.43.24+
19 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CVZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVZ's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVZ PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.3x
Fair PS Ratio1.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CVZ is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CVZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.03
€12.02
+19.9%
12.8%€16.05€10.14n/a13
Nov ’25€8.55
€11.97
+40.0%
13.1%€15.91€10.05n/a13
Oct ’25€8.69
€12.86
+48.1%
13.8%€15.90€10.04n/a13
Sep ’25€9.24
€13.71
+48.5%
8.4%€15.76€11.94n/a13
Aug ’25€9.70
€14.01
+44.5%
7.3%€15.86€12.02n/a13
Jul ’25€10.18
€14.22
+39.8%
6.0%€16.01€12.81n/a13
Jun ’25€11.16
€14.18
+27.1%
7.1%€16.08€12.19n/a14
May ’25€11.18
€14.32
+28.1%
6.6%€16.24€13.00n/a13
Apr ’25€11.29
€14.03
+24.3%
7.3%€16.17€12.25n/a13
Mar ’25€10.19
€15.49
+52.0%
24.2%€27.90€12.40n/a13
Feb ’25€9.89
€15.73
+59.2%
22.8%€27.88€12.39n/a14
Jan ’25€10.87
€16.87
+55.2%
20.4%€27.72€13.00n/a14
Dec ’24€11.55
€17.45
+51.1%
17.4%€27.76€14.39n/a15
Nov ’24€13.62
€17.45
+28.1%
17.5%€27.78€14.41€8.5515
Oct ’24€13.79
€17.85
+29.4%
18.6%€28.42€14.04€8.6915
Sep ’24€13.32
€16.80
+26.1%
20.3%€27.43€12.87€9.2415
Aug ’24€12.50
€17.08
+36.6%
22.0%€27.82€13.05€9.7015
Jul ’24€11.32
€17.97
+58.8%
22.1%€28.03€12.80€10.1814
Jun ’24€10.14
€18.07
+78.2%
20.3%€27.77€13.03€11.1614
May ’24€10.97
€18.42
+67.9%
19.9%€27.09€14.05€11.1814
Apr ’24€11.50
€19.79
+72.1%
19.2%€27.54€14.28€11.2914
Mar ’24€12.59
€22.62
+79.6%
20.3%€35.95€17.29€10.1914
Feb ’24€13.98
€22.62
+61.8%
20.3%€35.95€17.29€9.8914
Jan ’24€16.55
€26.97
+63.0%
14.4%€35.82€22.05€10.8714
Dec ’23€18.68
€28.45
+52.3%
13.9%€37.52€22.37€11.5514
Nov ’23€23.64
€31.34
+32.6%
11.6%€38.67€26.03€13.6214

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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