AFC Gamma (MUN:0FG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 0FG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

0FG (€14.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€35.26)

0FG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	2/6

0FG Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 58.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 44.72% per year

Earnings grew by 129.3% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 12.73% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Shares are highly illiquid

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

AFC Gamma Competitors

EUWAX

DB:EUX

€345.1m

Mutares SE KGaA

XTRA:MUX

€370.4m

OVB Holding

XTRA:O4B

€381.9m

BAVARIA Industries Group

XTRA:B8A

€387.8m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for AFC Gamma
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$14.70
52 Week High	US$21.90
52 Week Low	US$14.40
Beta	0
1 Month Change	0%
3 Month Change	-6.37%
1 Year Change	-14.93%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-16.95%

Shareholder Returns

	0FG	DE Mortgage REITs	DE Market
7D	0%	-3.1%	1.1%
1Y	-14.9%	-19.3%	-20.0%

Return vs Industry: 0FG exceeded the German Mortgage REITs industry which returned -19.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 0FG exceeded the German Market which returned -20% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 0FG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
0FG volatility
0FG Average Weekly Movement	n/a
Mortgage REITs Industry Average Movement	5.6%
Market Average Movement	5.7%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: Insufficient data to determine 0FG's volatility over the past 3 months.

Volatility Over Time: Insufficient data to determine 0FG's volatility change over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2020	n/a	Len Tannenbaum	https://www.afcgamma.com

AFC Gamma, Inc. originates, structures, underwrites, and invests in senior secured loans, and other types of loans and debt securities for established companies operating in the cannabis industry in states that have legalized medicinal and/or adult use cannabis. It primarily originates loans structured as senior loans secured by real estate, equipment, and licenses and/or other assets of the loan parties to the extent permitted by applicable laws and the regulations governing such loan parties. AFC Gamma, Inc. has elected and qualified to be taxed as a real estate investment trust for the United States federal income tax purposes under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986.

AFC Gamma Fundamentals Summary

How do AFC Gamma's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
0FG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$347.28m
Earnings (TTM)	US$29.76m
Revenue (TTM)	US$45.78m

11.7x

P/E Ratio

7.6x

P/S Ratio

Is 0FG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
0FG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$45.78m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$45.78m
Other Expenses	US$16.01m
Earnings	US$29.76m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 09, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.51
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	65.02%
Debt/Equity Ratio	28.7%

How did 0FG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

12.7%

Current Dividend Yield

103%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 0FG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0FG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 0FG. This is calculated by dividing 0FG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 0FG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$347.28m

0FG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0FG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

0FG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0FG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	23.2x
EUX EUWAX	58.6x	n/a	€345.1m
MUX Mutares SE KGaA	1x	-16.8%	€370.4m
O4B OVB Holding	26.4x	11.8%	€381.9m
B8A BAVARIA Industries Group	22.3x	n/a	€387.8m
0FG AFC Gamma	11.7x	44.7%	€347.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0FG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the peer average (23.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0FG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage REITs Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0FG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the Global Mortgage REITs industry average (12.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0FG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0FG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	11.7x
Fair PE Ratio	30.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0FG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0FG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0FG (€14.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€35.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0FG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is AFC Gamma forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

44.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 0FG's forecast earnings growth (44.7% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.01%).

Earnings vs Market: 0FG's earnings (44.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 0FG's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 0FG's revenue (36% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 0FG's revenue (36% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if 0FG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has AFC Gamma performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

129.3%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 0FG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 0FG's current net profit margins (65%) are lower than last year (75.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Unable to establish if 0FG's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years as it has been trading publicly for less than 3 years.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare 0FG's past year earnings growth to its 5-year average as it has been trading publicly for less than 3 years.

Earnings vs Industry: 0FG earnings growth over the past year (129.3%) exceeded the Mortgage REITs industry 9.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 0FG's Return on Equity (8.8%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is AFC Gamma's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 0FG's short term assets ($454.1M) exceed its short term liabilities ($20.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: 0FG's short term assets ($454.1M) exceed its long term liabilities ($96.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 0FG's net debt to equity ratio (9.8%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if 0FG's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 0FG's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12.2%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if 0FG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is AFC Gamma current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

12.73%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 0FG's dividend (12.73%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.46%).

High Dividend: 0FG's dividend (12.73%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.4%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether 0FG's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if 0FG's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (102.6%), 0FG's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (314.9%), 0FG's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Len Tannenbaum (51 yo)

2.08yrs

Tenure

US$827,183

Compensation

Mr. Leonard Mark Tannenbaum, also known as Len, CFA, serves as a Manager and Chief Executive Officer at AFC Management, LLC. He has been Chief Executive Officer, Chairman and Director of the Board at AFC G...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 0FG's management team is considered experienced (2.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 0FG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: 0FG insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 20.5%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31