Golub Capital BDC, Inc.

DB:OGL Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.9b

Golub Capital BDC Valuation

Is OGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OGL (€14.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€21.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OGL?

Key metric: As OGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OGL. This is calculated by dividing OGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.8x
EarningsUS$273.79m
Market CapUS$4.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

Insufficient data to calculate this valuation analysis check
The above table shows the PE ratio for OGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Averagen/a
OGL Golub Capital BDC
14.8x19.4%€4.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: Insufficient data to calculate OGL's Price-To-Earnings Ratio vs. peers for valuation analysis.

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/aUS$413.77m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.7x-18.2%US$205.53m
VG8 Varengold Bank
1.9xn/aUS$24.20m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.73m
No more companies available in this PE range
OGL 14.8xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (20.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.8x
Fair PE Ratio17.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€14.90
€15.60
+4.7%
4.6%€16.33€14.40n/a4
Nov ’25€13.90
€14.52
+4.5%
4.6%€15.19€13.40n/a4
Oct ’25€13.60
€14.52
+6.8%
4.6%€15.19€13.40n/a4
Sep ’25€13.50
€14.52
+7.6%
4.6%€15.19€13.40n/a4
Aug ’25€14.10
€15.54
+10.2%
4.9%€16.12€14.28n/a4
Jul ’25€14.60
€15.89
+8.8%
1.4%€16.12€15.66n/a4
Jun ’25€15.00
€15.89
+5.9%
1.4%€16.12€15.66n/a4
May ’25€16.40
€15.86
-3.3%
1.9%€16.32€15.39n/a5
Apr ’25€15.01
€15.41
+2.6%
4.1%€16.15€14.30n/a5
Mar ’25€14.32
€15.22
+6.3%
4.9%€16.25€14.39n/a5
Feb ’25€14.07
€14.87
+5.7%
3.6%€15.70€14.31n/a5
Jan ’25€13.84
€14.57
+5.3%
4.2%€15.58€13.75n/a5
Dec ’24€13.72
€14.57
+6.2%
4.2%€15.58€13.75n/a5
Nov ’24€13.61
€14.30
+5.1%
3.2%€15.03€13.67€13.905
Oct ’24€13.51
€14.30
+5.9%
3.2%€15.03€13.67€13.605
Sep ’24€13.17
€14.30
+8.6%
3.2%€15.03€13.67€13.505
Aug ’24€12.55
€12.80
+2.0%
6.7%€13.80€11.58€14.104
Jul ’24€12.33
€12.98
+5.3%
5.8%€13.66€11.84€14.604
Jun ’24€12.22
€12.98
+6.2%
5.8%€13.66€11.84€15.004
May ’24€12.05
€13.05
+8.3%
8.7%€14.13€11.17€16.404
Apr ’24€12.20
€13.87
+13.7%
3.2%€14.51€13.34€15.014
Mar ’24€13.20
€13.87
+5.1%
3.2%€14.51€13.34€14.324
Feb ’24€12.60
€14.18
+12.5%
1.7%€14.42€13.94€14.074
Jan ’24€12.40
€14.18
+14.4%
1.7%€14.42€13.94€13.844
Dec ’23€13.20
€14.18
+7.4%
1.7%€14.42€13.94€13.724
Nov ’23€12.90
€14.94
+15.8%
3.8%€15.70€14.18€13.614

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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