Flight Centre Travel Group Limited

DB:FLI Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.2b

Flight Centre Travel Group Valuation

Is FLI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FLI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FLI (€9.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€16.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FLI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FLI?

Key metric: As FLI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FLI. This is calculated by dividing FLI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FLI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26x
EarningsAU$139.64m
Market CapAU$3.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FLI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FLI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.7x
TUI1 TUI
8.5x16.1%€4.3b
IFA LS Invest
6.3xn/a€281.3m
TIMA ZEAL Network
22.6x-12.6%€1.1b
603099 Changbai Mountain Tourism
85.4x26.0%CN¥11.3b
FLI Flight Centre Travel Group
26x19.0%€3.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FLI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the peer average (30.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FLI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FLI 26.0xIndustry Avg. 17.6xNo. of Companies16PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FLI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FLI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FLI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26x
Fair PE Ratio27.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FLI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FLI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€9.70
€12.61
+30.0%
11.9%€15.82€10.24n/a16
Dec ’25€10.70
€12.61
+17.8%
11.9%€15.82€10.24n/a16
Nov ’25€9.40
€13.18
+40.2%
11.8%€15.78€10.21n/a17
Oct ’25€13.70
€14.69
+7.2%
12.0%€18.50€12.28n/a17
Sep ’25€12.70
€14.69
+15.7%
12.0%€18.50€12.28n/a17
Aug ’25€12.90
€14.24
+10.4%
12.2%€17.48€11.77n/a17
Jul ’25€12.20
€13.85
+13.5%
11.8%€16.66€11.18n/a17
Jun ’25€11.50
€13.83
+20.2%
11.7%€16.59€11.13n/a17
May ’25€12.90
€13.83
+7.2%
11.7%€16.59€11.13n/a17
Apr ’25€13.00
€13.74
+5.7%
11.0%€16.40€11.43n/a17
Mar ’25€13.00
€13.74
+5.7%
11.0%€16.40€11.43n/a17
Feb ’25€12.80
€13.64
+6.6%
11.0%€16.54€10.88n/a16
Jan ’25€12.50
€13.87
+10.9%
11.6%€16.87€11.10n/a15
Dec ’24€11.00
€13.30
+20.9%
12.1%€16.50€10.73€10.7017
Nov ’24€10.90
€13.90
+27.5%
12.2%€16.60€10.79€9.4017
Oct ’24€11.70
€14.03
+19.9%
12.2%€16.67€10.84€13.7017
Sep ’24€12.50
€13.65
+9.2%
14.5%€16.53€9.62€12.7017
Aug ’24€13.90
€13.44
-3.3%
14.6%€16.13€9.83€12.9017
Jul ’24€11.40
€13.06
+14.6%
15.2%€16.24€9.96€12.2016
Jun ’24€12.80
€12.72
-0.7%
16.9%€16.08€9.86€11.5016
May ’24€11.60
€11.48
-1.1%
11.2%€13.66€9.67€12.9015
Apr ’24€11.14
€11.91
+6.9%
9.9%€13.71€10.20€13.0016
Mar ’24€11.70
€11.91
+1.7%
9.9%€13.71€10.20€13.0016
Feb ’24€10.87
€11.46
+5.4%
11.7%€13.96€8.90€12.8016
Jan ’24€9.00
€11.31
+25.7%
14.0%€15.14€8.44€12.5016
Dec ’23€10.24
€11.29
+10.2%
14.1%€15.24€8.49€11.0015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 17:06
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Flight Centre Travel Group Limited is covered by 34 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited