El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

DB:EP6 Stock Report

Market Cap: €330.3m

El Pollo Loco Holdings Valuation

Is EP6 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EP6 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EP6 (€11) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EP6 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EP6?

Key metric: As EP6 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EP6. This is calculated by dividing EP6's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EP6's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.1x
EarningsUS$24.08m
Market CapUS$340.41m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EP6's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EP6 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20x
IFA LS Invest
6.4xn/a€288.7m
TIMA ZEAL Network
22.7x-12.6%€1.1b
3091 BRONCO BILLYLTD
33.2x8.6%JP¥54.3b
A475560 Born Korea
17.5xn/a₩453.5b
EP6 El Pollo Loco Holdings
14.1x9.4%€340.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EP6 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the peer average (20x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EP6's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EP6 14.1xIndustry Avg. 17.0xNo. of Companies16PE01224364860+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EP6 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EP6's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EP6 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.1x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EP6 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EP6 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.00
€12.92
+17.4%
7.1%€13.84€12.00n/a2
Dec ’25€11.80
€12.92
+9.5%
7.1%€13.84€12.00n/a2
Nov ’25€10.90
€12.92
+18.5%
7.1%€13.84€12.00n/a2
Oct ’25€12.20
€12.60
+3.3%
5.5%€13.29€11.91n/a2
Sep ’25€12.30
€12.60
+2.4%
5.5%€13.29€11.91n/a2
Aug ’25€11.00
€11.38
+3.4%
2.0%€11.61€11.15n/a2
Jul ’25€10.40
€11.38
+9.4%
2.0%€11.61€11.15n/a2
Jun ’25€9.65
€11.38
+17.9%
2.0%€11.61€11.15n/a2
May ’25€8.05
€9.79
+21.6%
4.8%€10.25€9.32n/a2
Apr ’25€8.60
€9.79
+13.8%
4.8%€10.25€9.32n/a2
Mar ’25€8.30
€9.79
+17.9%
4.8%€10.25€9.32n/a2
Feb ’25€8.50
€9.79
+15.2%
4.8%€10.26€9.33n/a2
Jan ’25€8.05
€9.79
+21.6%
4.8%€10.26€9.33€11.002
Dec ’24€7.60
€9.79
+28.8%
4.8%€10.26€9.33€11.802
Nov ’24€7.80
€10.86
+39.2%
4.3%€11.33€10.39€10.902
Oct ’24€8.45
€10.54
+24.8%
4.2%€11.16€10.23€12.203
Sep ’24€8.75
€10.30
+17.7%
4.2%€10.90€10.00€12.303
Aug ’24€9.65
€10.59
+9.7%
8.1%€11.79€9.98€11.003
Jul ’24€8.05
€10.59
+31.5%
8.1%€11.79€9.98€10.403
Jun ’24€8.60
€10.59
+23.1%
8.1%€11.79€9.98€9.653
May ’24€8.30
€11.43
+37.8%
13.6%€13.63€10.34€8.053
Apr ’24€8.65
€11.43
+32.2%
13.6%€13.63€10.34€8.603
Mar ’24€11.30
€11.53
+2.0%
19.7%€14.68€9.47€8.303
Feb ’24€11.20
€11.53
+2.9%
19.7%€14.68€9.47€8.503
Jan ’24€9.50
€12.21
+28.5%
19.7%€15.56€10.04€8.053

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/05 13:19
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/25
Annual Earnings2023/12/27

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Todd BrooksBenchmark Company
Todd BrooksCL King & Associates, Inc.
Matthew DiFriscoGuggenheim Securities, LLC