Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

DB:C9F Stock Report

Market Cap: €75.6b

Chipotle Mexican Grill Valuation

Is C9F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of C9F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€62.75
Fair Value
10.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
31
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: C9F (€56.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€62.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: C9F is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for C9F?

Key metric: As C9F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for C9F. This is calculated by dividing C9F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is C9F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio49.6x
EarningsUS$1.53b
Market CapUS$78.34b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does C9F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for C9F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.4x
CPG Compass Group
42x14.8%UK£47.5b
3690 Meituan
28.3x18.2%HK$959.6b
SBUX Starbucks
35.9x12.6%US$126.6b
YUM Yum! Brands
27.5x8.3%US$41.3b
C9F Chipotle Mexican Grill
49.6x14.1%€78.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: C9F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.6x) compared to the peer average (33.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does C9F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
C9F 49.6xIndustry Avg. 16.3xNo. of Companies25PE01632486480+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: C9F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.6x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is C9F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

C9F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio49.6x
Fair PE Ratio41.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: C9F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst C9F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€56.19
€62.41
+11.1%
11.6%€72.35€40.51n/a31
Feb ’26€56.49
€63.56
+12.5%
11.7%€71.90€40.26n/a32
Jan ’26€58.55
€62.59
+6.9%
11.7%€71.37€39.97n/a32
Dec ’25€59.11
€61.56
+4.1%
11.2%€68.39€39.90n/a32
Nov ’25€51.67
€59.28
+14.7%
11.7%€66.20€38.61n/a30
Oct ’25€51.55
€55.46
+7.6%
11.9%€65.31€38.47n/a31
Sep ’25€50.62
€56.43
+11.5%
11.8%€66.52€39.18n/a31
Aug ’25€49.72
€58.59
+17.9%
11.8%€73.91€39.73n/a31
Jul ’25€57.00
€61.51
+7.9%
11.7%€74.68€37.34n/a31
Jun ’25€55.78
€59.69
+7.0%
10.4%€66.66€37.96n/a30
May ’25€60.00
€59.86
-0.2%
10.5%€67.34€38.35n/a31
Apr ’25€53.66
€51.94
-3.2%
10.7%€61.18€36.15n/a30
Mar ’25€49.80
€50.36
+1.1%
9.2%€57.21€35.99n/a30
Feb ’25€44.86
€44.81
-0.1%
11.2%€55.34€33.20€56.4930
Jan ’25€40.80
€40.67
-0.3%
9.7%€48.17€32.72€58.5531
Dec ’24€40.92
€39.97
-2.3%
9.8%€47.26€33.10€59.1131
Nov ’24€37.68
€40.68
+8.0%
9.3%€48.64€34.07€51.6730
Oct ’24€34.65
€40.54
+17.0%
9.1%€48.22€32.27€51.5530
Sep ’24€35.97
€40.08
+11.4%
9.1%€47.71€31.93€50.6230
Aug ’24€35.52
€39.41
+10.9%
9.1%€46.80€30.96€49.7230
Jul ’24€38.65
€38.50
-0.4%
9.5%€43.15€28.46€57.0030
Jun ’24€38.52
€38.45
-0.2%
9.1%€43.68€28.81€55.7829
May ’24€36.76
€36.68
-0.2%
10.0%€41.73€28.12€60.0031
Apr ’24€30.56
€33.74
+10.4%
8.7%€38.74€28.81€53.6631
Mar ’24€27.89
€34.32
+23.1%
8.8%€39.51€29.38€49.8032
Feb ’24€30.06
€32.62
+8.5%
7.8%€36.88€26.74€44.8632
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 31 Analysts
€64.72
Fair Value
13.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
31
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/11 01:05
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/11 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is covered by 66 analysts. 32 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research