McDonald's Valuation

Is MDO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDO (€258.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€263.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MDO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA18.3x
PEG Ratio3.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MDO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MDO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.8x
SBUX Starbucks
24.1x11.2%US$103.6b
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
65.2x15.8%US$80.2b
3690 Meituan
37.6x36.3%HK$563.9b
YUM Yum! Brands
24.2x7.1%US$38.6b
MDO McDonald's
24x6.8%€201.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MDO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the peer average (37.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MDO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a52.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a52.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MDO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (18.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24x
Fair PE Ratio28.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MDO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€258.90
€301.04
+16.3%
4.5%€329.62€276.07n/a31
Mar ’25€268.90
€301.08
+12.0%
4.5%€329.44€275.92n/a32
Feb ’25€271.50
€298.53
+10.0%
6.4%€353.62€258.52n/a33
Jan ’25€267.00
€286.84
+7.4%
6.3%€348.11€254.49n/a34
Dec ’24€261.30
€283.30
+8.4%
7.2%€351.90€248.08n/a33
Nov ’24€247.60
€291.20
+17.6%
7.4%€362.43€255.50n/a33
Oct ’24€249.20
€308.25
+23.7%
5.3%€359.29€267.36n/a32
Sep ’24€259.40
€301.56
+16.3%
5.1%€352.17€262.06n/a32
Aug ’24€265.30
€297.61
+12.2%
5.4%€348.30€259.18n/a33
Jul ’24€272.00
€288.71
+6.1%
5.0%€316.07€237.51n/a33
Jun ’24€266.90
€293.97
+10.1%
5.0%€321.57€241.64n/a32
May ’24€267.60
€285.14
+6.6%
5.4%€314.00€235.95n/a33
Apr ’24€257.85
€270.54
+4.9%
6.0%€304.43€221.40n/a32
Mar ’24€246.25
€273.62
+11.1%
5.8%€307.14€224.74€268.9033
Feb ’24€242.85
€266.38
+9.7%
5.9%€298.58€218.47€271.5032
Jan ’24€249.95
€272.78
+9.1%
6.3%€309.01€232.70€267.0033
Dec ’23€259.85
€279.15
+7.4%
6.2%€317.34€238.97€261.3034
Nov ’23€276.15
€291.15
+5.4%
6.2%€332.07€250.06€247.6034
Oct ’23€239.00
€293.35
+22.7%
6.8%€341.87€244.94€249.2034
Sep ’23€257.15
€282.12
+9.7%
6.6%€327.41€234.58€259.4032
Aug ’23€257.80
€275.13
+6.7%
7.0%€321.11€230.07€265.3031
Jul ’23€240.15
€266.24
+10.9%
6.4%€300.69€217.38€272.0031
Jun ’23€233.90
€258.93
+10.7%
6.9%€292.84€211.70€266.9031
May ’23€239.25
€265.68
+11.0%
5.9%€297.73€215.24€267.6032
Apr ’23€224.00
€251.87
+12.4%
6.0%€281.53€224.15€257.8532
Mar ’23€216.20
€250.12
+15.7%
5.6%€276.89€220.45€246.2533

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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