SECOM CO., LTD.

DB:XSC Stock Report

Market Cap: €13.7b

SECOM Valuation

Is XSC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XSC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XSC (€32.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€33.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XSC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XSC?

Key metric: As XSC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XSC. This is calculated by dividing XSC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XSC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.6x
EarningsJP¥103.15b
Market CapJP¥2.23t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XSC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XSC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.5x
GBF Bilfinger
7.4x2.2%€1.7b
CWC CEWE Stiftung KGaA
11.2x2.2%€721.8m
BFSA Befesa
14.9x29.6%€826.4m
SECU B Securitas
16.5x19.1%SEK 77.9b
XSC SECOM
21.6x3.1%€2.2t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XSC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the peer average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XSC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Commercial Services Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XSC 21.6xIndustry Avg. 14.3xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XSC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the European Commercial Services industry average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XSC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XSC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.6x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XSC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XSC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€32.80
€35.14
+7.1%
3.8%€37.43€33.68n/a6
Dec ’25€32.40
€34.06
+5.1%
6.8%€37.21€29.77n/a6
Nov ’25€32.00
€33.54
+4.8%
6.5%€36.22€30.23n/a6
Oct ’25€33.80
€33.54
-0.8%
6.5%€36.22€30.23n/a6
Sep ’25€32.50
€32.61
+0.3%
5.4%€35.51€29.91n/a6
Aug ’25€28.50
€30.13
+5.7%
4.1%€32.31€28.45n/a6
Jul ’25€27.00
€30.13
+11.6%
4.1%€32.31€28.45n/a6
Jun ’25€28.25
€31.48
+11.4%
3.0%€33.09€30.36n/a6
May ’25€31.75
€31.48
-0.9%
3.0%€33.09€30.36n/a6
Apr ’25€33.25
€31.48
-5.3%
3.0%€33.09€30.36n/a6
Mar ’25€34.25
€31.88
-6.9%
3.1%€33.46€30.70n/a6
Feb ’25€33.50
€30.80
-8.0%
7.6%€33.25€27.03n/a7
Jan ’25€32.00
€31.49
-1.6%
8.2%€34.03€27.67€32.006
Dec ’24€31.75
€29.89
-5.9%
7.4%€32.58€26.49€32.407
Nov ’24€33.00
€30.51
-7.5%
6.8%€33.18€27.49€32.007
Oct ’24€31.75
€30.51
-3.9%
6.8%€33.18€27.49€33.807
Sep ’24€32.00
€30.29
-5.3%
6.3%€33.18€27.49€32.507
Aug ’24€30.25
€29.22
-3.4%
6.3%€31.76€25.73€28.507
Jul ’24€30.75
€29.22
-5.0%
6.3%€31.76€25.73€27.007
Jun ’24€30.50
€30.37
-0.4%
5.6%€33.14€27.12€28.257
May ’24€29.00
€32.02
+10.4%
6.1%€35.88€28.77€31.757
Apr ’24€28.00
€32.02
+14.4%
6.1%€35.88€28.77€33.257
Mar ’24€26.50
€31.95
+20.6%
6.1%€35.74€28.66€34.257
Feb ’24€26.25
€31.83
+21.3%
5.8%€35.07€28.34€33.507
Jan ’24€26.00
€31.83
+22.4%
7.2%€37.25€30.08€32.007

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/05 19:02
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

SECOM CO., LTD. is covered by 15 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James MoonBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Masaaki KitamiBofA Global Research
Soichiro FukudaCitigroup Inc