Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

DB:WA3 Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.6b

Casella Waste Systems Valuation

Is WA3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WA3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€96.98
Fair Value
7.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: WA3 (€104.35) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€96.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WA3 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WA3?

Key metric: As WA3 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for WA3. This is calculated by dividing WA3's market cap by their current revenue.
What is WA3's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.6x
SalesUS$1.49b
Market CapUS$6.84b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does WA3's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for WA3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.4x
BFSA Befesa
0.7x5.8%€852.8m
ABA ALBA
0.2xn/a€70.8m
GBF Bilfinger
0.4x4.8%€1.8b
WAH Wolftank Group
0.3x12.1%€41.5m
WA3 Casella Waste Systems
4.6x9.0%€6.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: WA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does WA3's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Commercial Services Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WA3 4.6xIndustry Avg. 0.6xNo. of Companies29PS00.61.21.82.43+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: WA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the European Commercial Services industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WA3's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WA3 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: WA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WA3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€104.35
€109.81
+5.2%
9.2%€123.94€92.14n/a9
Feb ’26€103.65
€109.81
+5.9%
9.2%€123.94€92.14n/a9
Jan ’26€101.45
€110.83
+9.2%
7.5%€124.20€98.41n/a9
Dec ’25€106.80
€105.10
-1.6%
6.6%€119.96€95.05n/a9
Nov ’25€91.22
€105.10
+15.2%
6.6%€119.96€95.05n/a9
Oct ’25€90.74
€103.73
+14.3%
6.4%€111.09€90.49n/a9
Sep ’25€97.14
€104.75
+7.8%
6.2%€113.16€92.17n/a9
Aug ’25€94.60
€98.09
+3.7%
5.2%€103.42€84.95n/a9
Jul ’25€91.52
€97.91
+7.0%
5.1%€104.65€85.96n/a9
Jun ’25€90.86
€95.99
+5.6%
5.1%€103.50€85.02n/a8
May ’25€84.54
€96.60
+14.3%
5.4%€104.46€85.81n/a7
Apr ’25€91.42
€94.74
+3.6%
5.8%€103.16€84.74n/a7
Mar ’25€83.80
€94.46
+12.7%
5.5%€103.22€84.79n/a8
Feb ’25€79.42
€90.30
+13.7%
6.9%€100.97€78.94€103.658
Jan ’25€77.02
€90.12
+17.0%
6.2%€100.39€81.22€101.458
Dec ’24€73.60
€90.12
+22.4%
6.2%€100.39€81.22€106.808
Nov ’24€69.88
€94.14
+34.7%
6.3%€104.15€84.27€91.227
Oct ’24€71.70
€93.97
+31.1%
6.6%€103.37€83.63€90.746
Sep ’24€73.80
€92.05
+24.7%
7.2%€101.26€81.92€97.145
Aug ’24€74.52
€91.49
+22.8%
7.0%€100.03€80.94€94.605
Jul ’24€83.04
€93.64
+12.8%
6.9%€100.78€81.54€91.525
Jun ’24€84.78
€92.69
+9.3%
5.8%€96.75€82.00€90.865
May ’24€80.64
€90.06
+11.7%
6.3%€95.71€81.12€84.545
Apr ’24€75.88
€86.02
+13.4%
7.3%€92.43€74.51€91.425
Mar ’24€72.12
€86.02
+19.3%
7.3%€92.43€74.51€83.805
Feb ’24€73.58
€84.91
+15.4%
6.3%€90.44€74.75€79.425
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
€111.29
Fair Value
6.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/08 00:30
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Samuel EnglandBerenberg
Michael FenigerBofA Global Research
Eric ProutyCanaccord Genuity