Paychex, Inc.

DB:PCX Stock Report

Market Cap: €48.2b

Paychex Valuation

Is PCX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PCX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PCX (€132.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€152.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PCX is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PCX?

Key metric: As PCX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PCX. This is calculated by dividing PCX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PCX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29.2x
EarningsUS$1.72b
Market CapUS$50.24b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PCX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PCX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.7x
AAD Amadeus FiRe
11.8x7.2%€412.8m
6098 Recruit Holdings
44.3x10.1%JP¥16.1t
ADP Automatic Data Processing
31.1x6.5%US$119.8b
GBF Bilfinger
7.5x2.2%€1.7b
PCX Paychex
29.2x6.4%€50.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PCX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x) compared to the peer average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PCX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Professional Services Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PCX 29.2xIndustry Avg. 18.5xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PCX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x) compared to the European Professional Services industry average (18.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PCX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PCX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.2x
Fair PE Ratio16.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PCX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PCX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€132.48
€131.25
-0.9%
7.1%€143.76€110.22n/a16
Dec ’25€138.02
€126.65
-8.2%
7.1%€141.57€108.54n/a16
Nov ’25€128.14
€121.24
-5.4%
6.7%€134.90€104.82n/a16
Oct ’25€120.50
€116.02
-3.7%
7.3%€133.70€103.89n/a16
Sep ’25€117.30
€108.96
-7.1%
4.7%€116.84€98.87n/a16
Aug ’25€117.32
€112.86
-3.8%
4.7%€120.98€102.37n/a17
Jul ’25€110.80
€113.16
+2.1%
4.7%€121.36€102.69n/a17
Jun ’25€110.58
€112.67
+1.9%
4.4%€121.19€103.47n/a17
May ’25€111.44
€113.19
+1.6%
4.3%€121.84€104.03n/a18
Apr ’25€113.20
€110.85
-2.1%
4.7%€118.87€98.76n/a18
Mar ’25€112.80
€112.34
-0.4%
4.7%€120.42€100.04n/a18
Feb ’25€110.20
€110.45
+0.2%
5.0%€118.56€95.76n/a18
Jan ’25€107.30
€109.75
+2.3%
5.2%€118.04€95.34n/a17
Dec ’24€110.90
€112.95
+1.9%
6.7%€125.29€99.11€138.0217
Nov ’24€103.20
€114.35
+10.8%
6.9%€126.79€100.30€128.1416
Oct ’24€110.50
€114.96
+4.0%
7.1%€126.75€100.27€120.5016
Sep ’24€113.60
€111.32
-2.0%
7.8%€124.47€94.97€117.3017
Aug ’24€113.50
€106.37
-6.3%
7.2%€120.53€91.96€117.3217
Jul ’24€103.50
€108.59
+4.9%
6.9%€123.71€94.39€110.8017
Jun ’24€99.25
€111.04
+11.9%
7.9%€127.72€95.79€110.5816
May ’24€97.25
€111.04
+14.2%
7.9%€127.72€95.79€111.4416
Apr ’24€104.82
€113.04
+7.8%
6.3%€129.07€100.49€113.2016
Mar ’24€102.44
€112.92
+10.2%
6.3%€129.72€101.93€112.8016
Feb ’24€105.86
€112.92
+6.7%
6.3%€129.72€101.93€110.2016
Jan ’24€108.38
€114.92
+6.0%
6.0%€131.68€107.23€107.3016
Dec ’23€118.74
€126.37
+6.4%
6.1%€140.49€114.40€110.9016

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 19:08
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/11/30
Annual Earnings2024/05/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Paychex, Inc. is covered by 45 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Mark MarconBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research