Montrose Environmental Group Valuation

Is 5MO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5MO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5MO (€17.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€60.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5MO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5MO?

Key metric: As 5MO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 5MO. This is calculated by dividing 5MO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 5MO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1x
Sales	US$673.08m
Market Cap	US$616.38m

5MO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	28.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 5MO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 5MO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.5x
BFSA Befesa	0.7x	7.2%	€845.6m
ABA ALBA	0.3x	n/a	€76.3m
WAH Wolftank Group	0.4x	12.7%	€43.6m
CWC CEWE Stiftung KGaA	0.8x	3.5%	€684.9m
5MO Montrose Environmental Group	0.9x	10.8%	€616.4m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 5MO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 5MO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Commercial Services Industry?

10 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

10 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 5MO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the European Commercial Services industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5MO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5MO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1x
Fair PS Ratio	0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 5MO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5MO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€17.10	€34.88 +104.0%	15.9%	€41.30	€27.22	n/a	6
Nov ’25	€23.40	€44.34 +89.5%	7.0%	€48.37	€38.52	n/a	6
Oct ’25	€20.60	€44.34 +115.3%	7.0%	€48.37	€38.52	n/a	6
Sep ’25	€29.40	€44.94 +52.8%	7.0%	€49.02	€39.04	n/a	6
Aug ’25	€27.80	€48.59 +74.8%	5.4%	€52.33	€44.85	n/a	5
Jul ’25	€39.40	€48.59 +23.3%	5.4%	€52.33	€44.85	n/a	5
Jun ’25	€43.20	€45.14 +4.5%	9.5%	€49.66	€36.33	n/a	6
May ’25	€40.20	€45.64 +13.5%	9.7%	€50.73	€37.11	n/a	6
Apr ’25	€36.00	€43.63 +21.2%	8.9%	€49.69	€36.34	n/a	6
Mar ’25	€34.80	€42.83 +23.1%	13.4%	€49.83	€30.91	n/a	6
Feb ’25	€28.40	€39.59 +39.4%	16.3%	€49.38	€30.63	n/a	5
Jan ’25	€29.20	€39.59 +35.6%	16.3%	€49.38	€30.63	n/a	5
Dec ’24	€29.40	€42.90 +45.9%	12.4%	€50.64	€37.51	€17.60	4
Nov ’24	€21.60	€44.64 +106.7%	6.1%	€49.20	€41.91	€23.40	4
Oct ’24	€27.40	€44.64 +62.9%	6.1%	€49.20	€41.91	€20.60	4
Sep ’24	€36.00	€44.64 +24.0%	6.1%	€49.20	€41.91	€29.40	4
Aug ’24	€34.20	€43.28 +26.6%	11.1%	€50.26	€37.23	€27.80	4
Jul ’24	€38.20	€43.28 +13.3%	11.1%	€50.26	€37.23	€39.40	4
Jun ’24	€33.20	€41.11 +23.8%	14.8%	€50.22	€32.55	€43.20	5
May ’24	€27.40	€40.82 +49.0%	14.1%	€49.53	€32.10	€40.20	6
Apr ’24	€32.40	€44.88 +38.5%	10.7%	€51.20	€36.98	€36.00	6
Mar ’24	€45.40	€49.86 +9.8%	8.3%	€54.98	€44.55	€34.80	5
Feb ’24	€48.60	€51.22 +5.4%	15.8%	€67.37	€43.38	€28.40	6
Jan ’24	€40.20	€50.64 +26.0%	16.9%	€68.67	€44.21	€29.20	6
Dec ’23	€46.60	€51.45 +10.4%	17.8%	€70.42	€42.45	€29.40	6

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.