Earnings Beat: Bilfinger SE Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

As you might know, Bilfinger SE (ETR:GBF) recently reported its quarterly numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €1.3b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Bilfinger surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €1.45 per share, a notable 19% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Bilfinger after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Bilfinger

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Bilfinger from four analysts is for revenues of €5.30b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 8.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 17% to €5.11 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €5.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.09 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €59.75. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Bilfinger at €61.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €59.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Bilfinger is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Bilfinger's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Bilfinger to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bilfinger going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Bilfinger you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.