Heidelberger Druckmaschinen (DB:HDDF) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of HDDF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HDDF (€0.73) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€3.48)

HDDF fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

HDDF Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 79% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 24.6% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

High level of non-cash earnings

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Competitors

WashTec

XTRA:WSU

€544.0m

NORMA Group

XTRA:NOEJ

€583.1m

Gesco

XTRA:GSC1

€271.0m

Schaltbau Holding

HMSE:SLT

€631.3m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€0.73
52 Week High	€1.58
52 Week Low	€0.61
Beta	2.08
1 Month Change	18.70%
3 Month Change	-31.13%
1 Year Change	-14.62%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	249.12%

Shareholder Returns

	HDDF	DE Machinery	DE Market
7D	5.8%	0.3%	1.1%
1Y	-14.6%	-31.5%	-20.0%

Return vs Industry: HDDF exceeded the German Machinery industry which returned -31.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HDDF exceeded the German Market which returned -20% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is HDDF's price volatile compared to industry and market?
HDDF volatility
HDDF Average Weekly Movement	14.7%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	5.3%
Market Average Movement	5.7%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: HDDF is more volatile than 90% of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 15% a week.

Volatility Over Time: HDDF's weekly volatility (15%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of German stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1850	10,173	Ludwin Monz	https://www.heidelberg.com

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and deals in printing press and other print media industry products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia/Pacific, Eastern Europe, North America, and South America. The company operates through Print Solutions, Packaging Solutions, and Technology Solutions segments. It offers printing machines, including digital, offset, narrow web, screen, and inline-flexo printing, as well as remarketed equipment; and finishing equipment comprising cutting, die-cutting and embossing, folding, inspection, folding carton gluing, hot foil stamping, and shingled folding.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Fundamentals Summary

How do Heidelberger Druckmaschinen's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
HDDF fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€446.77m
Earnings (TTM)	€33.06m
Revenue (TTM)	€2.20b

13.5x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is HDDF overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
HDDF income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€2.20b
Cost of Revenue	€1.01b
Gross Profit	€1.19b
Other Expenses	€1.16b
Earnings	€33.06m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 10, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.11
Gross Margin	53.97%
Net Profit Margin	1.50%
Debt/Equity Ratio	38.0%

How did HDDF perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is HDDF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HDDF?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for HDDF. This is calculated by dividing HDDF's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is HDDF's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€446.77m

HDDF key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4.5x
PEG Ratio	0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HDDF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

HDDF PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for HDDF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.4x
WSU WashTec	20x	17.0%	€544.0m
NOEJ NORMA Group	11.1x	20.9%	€583.1m
GSC1 Gesco	8.6x	7.1%	€271.0m
SLT Schaltbau Holding	74.1x	38.4%	€631.3m
HDDF Heidelberger Druckmaschinen	13.5x	24.6%	€446.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HDDF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (28.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HDDF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HDDF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (16.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HDDF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HDDF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.5x
Fair PE Ratio	38.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HDDF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HDDF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HDDF (€0.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HDDF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

24.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HDDF's forecast earnings growth (24.6% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.01%).

Earnings vs Market: HDDF's earnings (24.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HDDF's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: HDDF's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HDDF's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HDDF's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.2%).

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Past Performance

How has Heidelberger Druckmaschinen performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-43.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HDDF has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: HDDF became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HDDF has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -43.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: HDDF has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HDDF has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Machinery industry (63.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: HDDF's Return on Equity (13.7%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HDDF's short term assets (€1.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (€879.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: HDDF's short term assets (€1.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (€1.1B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HDDF has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: HDDF's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 136.1% to 38% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HDDF's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (55.8%).

Interest Coverage: HDDF's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate HDDF's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate HDDF's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HDDF's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HDDF's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as HDDF has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Ludwin Monz (59 yo)

0.33

Tenure

Dr. Ludwin Monz, Ph D., M.B.A. has been the Chairman of Management Board at Carl Zeiss Meditec AG since October 8, 2007. Dr. Monz serves as Chief Executive Officer at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengese...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: HDDF's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: HDDF's board of directors are considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31