Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.

DB:HCM Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.5b

Hitachi Construction Machinery Valuation

Is HCM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCM (€21) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€44.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCM?

Key metric: As HCM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HCM. This is calculated by dividing HCM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HCM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.2x
EarningsJP¥78.27b
Market CapJP¥718.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HCM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HCM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34.9x
KGX KION GROUP
13.3x17.2%€4.4b
JUN3 Jungheinrich
9x6.8%€2.5b
R3NK RENK Group
97.9x50.1%€2.0b
KBX Knorr-Bremse
19.4x10.8%€11.6b
HCM Hitachi Construction Machinery
9.2x8.6%€718.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HCM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the peer average (34.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HCM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
HCM 9.2xIndustry Avg. 14.9xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HCM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (14.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.2x
Fair PE Ratio15.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HCM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HCM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€21.00
€24.94
+18.8%
19.2%€34.09€18.77n/a11
Nov ’25€19.80
€24.30
+22.7%
18.5%€32.85€18.08n/a11
Oct ’25€21.80
€26.55
+21.8%
18.3%€34.36€18.74n/a11
Sep ’25€22.00
€26.75
+21.6%
16.5%€34.04€20.42n/a11
Aug ’25€21.00
€29.38
+39.9%
9.4%€32.94€25.16n/a11
Jul ’25€25.00
€29.62
+18.5%
10.2%€34.57€24.61n/a11
Jun ’25€24.60
€29.62
+20.4%
10.2%€34.57€24.61n/a11
May ’25€26.60
€30.28
+13.8%
10.2%€35.34€25.16n/a11
Apr ’25€27.60
€30.14
+9.2%
10.7%€36.13€25.72n/a11
Mar ’25€26.80
€29.46
+9.9%
11.3%€36.15€24.81n/a11
Feb ’25€25.00
€28.97
+15.9%
10.0%€34.05€24.99n/a11
Jan ’25€23.40
€30.22
+29.2%
9.1%€35.15€25.80n/a11
Dec ’24€23.40
€30.28
+29.4%
11.3%€36.94€25.04€21.0012
Nov ’24€24.20
€31.47
+30.0%
13.0%€43.03€25.31€19.8012
Oct ’24€28.20
€31.52
+11.8%
12.6%€43.14€25.38€21.8012
Sep ’24€28.40
€30.14
+6.1%
15.7%€42.91€23.98€22.0012
Aug ’24€27.40
€28.70
+4.7%
11.0%€33.02€24.13€21.0012
Jul ’24€25.40
€26.28
+3.5%
11.7%€32.94€21.22€25.0013
Jun ’24€23.00
€26.46
+15.1%
14.0%€34.82€21.43€24.6013
May ’24€22.20
€24.92
+12.3%
13.0%€31.69€21.21€26.6013
Apr ’24€21.20
€25.78
+21.6%
12.7%€32.85€22.37€27.6013
Mar ’24€21.80
€24.96
+14.5%
13.7%€32.66€21.54€26.8013
Feb ’24€21.20
€25.50
+20.3%
13.4%€33.22€21.91€25.0013
Jan ’24€20.80
€24.81
+19.3%
14.1%€32.46€21.41€23.4013
Dec ’23€22.00
€24.81
+12.8%
14.1%€32.46€21.41€23.4013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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