Boise Cascade Valuation

Is BC0 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BC0 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BC0 (€133.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€150.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BC0 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BC0?

Key metric: As BC0 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BC0. This is calculated by dividing BC0's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BC0's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.6x
EarningsUS$404.99m
Market CapUS$5.52b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BC0's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BC0 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.3x
BNR Brenntag
16.1x15.6%€8.8b
NWX Nordwest Handel
6.1xn/a€67.3m
KGX KION GROUP
12.8x17.4%€4.3b
HMU HMS Bergbau
10.2x8.0%€129.0m
BC0 Boise Cascade
13.6x2.9%€5.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BC0 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BC0's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BC0 13.6xIndustry Avg. 14.5xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BC0 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BC0's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BC0 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.6x
Fair PE Ratio14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BC0 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BC0 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€133.30
€136.17
+2.2%
8.5%€149.99€116.45n/a6
Nov ’25€121.50
€133.13
+9.6%
8.5%€148.02€116.76n/a5
Oct ’25€125.55
€125.59
+0.03%
9.3%€140.04€112.03n/a5
Sep ’25€120.15
€126.52
+5.3%
10.1%€141.90€109.86n/a5
Aug ’25€130.50
€127.32
-2.4%
12.3%€146.77€111.91n/a5
Jul ’25€109.45
€135.91
+24.2%
12.2%€162.02€119.43n/a5
Jun ’25€123.90
€136.63
+10.3%
12.2%€162.87€120.06n/a5
May ’25€128.25
€141.72
+10.5%
10.8%€163.52€121.47n/a6
Apr ’25€142.60
€136.49
-4.3%
11.6%€161.58€120.03n/a6
Mar ’25€125.00
€130.48
+4.4%
8.3%€144.16€120.13n/a5
Feb ’25€124.70
€125.71
+0.8%
12.2%€143.35€102.92n/a5
Jan ’25€116.70
€108.10
-7.4%
6.4%€118.29€101.91n/a5
Dec ’24€99.45
€108.46
+9.1%
9.3%€121.55€93.50n/a5
Nov ’24€93.85
€110.34
+17.6%
9.1%€123.02€94.63€121.505
Oct ’24€99.85
€109.63
+9.8%
7.7%€120.17€99.84€125.555
Sep ’24€100.50
€109.63
+9.1%
7.7%€120.17€99.84€120.155
Aug ’24€93.05
€96.70
+3.9%
12.5%€118.37€81.95€130.505
Jul ’24€81.70
€76.23
-6.7%
16.4%€91.62€59.55€109.455
Jun ’24€66.20
€71.21
+7.6%
15.6%€91.35€60.59€123.905
May ’24€61.10
€65.50
+7.2%
8.8%€75.72€58.39€128.255
Apr ’24€56.00
€69.43
+24.0%
8.3%€78.30€60.38€142.605
Mar ’24€64.50
€69.43
+7.6%
8.3%€78.30€60.38€125.005
Feb ’24€68.00
€69.52
+2.2%
8.8%€77.98€60.13€124.705
Jan ’24€65.50
€69.83
+6.6%
8.4%€78.11€61.17€116.705
Dec ’23€70.00
€74.47
+6.4%
7.9%€84.44€66.12€99.455
Nov ’23€66.50
€71.68
+7.8%
9.6%€84.03€64.79€93.855

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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