Alstom Valuation

Is AOMD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AOMD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AOMD (€21.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€27.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AOMD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AOMD?

Key metric: As AOMD is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AOMD. This is calculated by dividing AOMD's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AOMD's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.6x
Sales€17.95b
Market Cap€9.95b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AOMD's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AOMD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
KBX Knorr-Bremse
1.5x4.3%€12.0b
8TRA Traton
0.3x1.8%€15.2b
KGX KION GROUP
0.4x2.7%€4.6b
DTG Daimler Truck Holding
0.5x4.1%€29.0b
AOMD Alstom
0.6x4.8%€9.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AOMD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AOMD's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HDD Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
0.1x4.3%US$302.79m
SF3 STS Group
0.08x2.5%US$25.89m
SNG Singulus Technologies
0.1x17.4%US$11.28m
SCM SCHUMAG
0.09xn/aUS$4.75m
AOMD 0.6xIndustry Avg. 0.5xNo. of Companies10PS00.61.21.82.43+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AOMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (0.5x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AOMD's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AOMD PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AOMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AOMD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€21.80
€23.52
+7.9%
23.8%€33.00€9.00n/a18
Dec ’25€21.00
€23.37
+11.3%
24.4%€33.00€8.00n/a18
Nov ’25€19.97
€21.84
+9.4%
26.7%€33.00€8.00n/a18
Oct ’25€18.40
€21.23
+15.4%
27.9%€33.00€8.00n/a18
Sep ’25€18.43
€21.36
+16.0%
27.8%€33.00€8.00n/a17
Aug ’25€18.03
€21.31
+18.2%
28.1%€33.00€8.00n/a17
Jul ’25€15.90
€20.08
+26.3%
30.9%€33.00€8.00n/a16
Jun ’25€17.81
€20.04
+12.5%
33.5%€33.00€8.00n/a14
May ’25€14.85
€18.73
+26.1%
33.9%€33.00€8.00n/a18
Apr ’25€14.05
€19.18
+36.6%
34.3%€33.00€8.00n/a17
Mar ’25€12.20
€18.95
+55.3%
34.2%€33.00€8.00n/a19
Feb ’25€11.81
€18.95
+60.5%
34.2%€33.00€8.00n/a19
Jan ’25€12.15
€20.61
+69.6%
35.2%€33.00€8.50n/a19
Dec ’24€11.69
€22.03
+88.5%
32.7%€33.00€8.50€21.0018
Nov ’24€12.78
€24.43
+91.2%
27.6%€33.00€12.00€19.9717
Oct ’24€22.87
€30.88
+35.0%
15.8%€38.00€16.50€18.4017
Sep ’24€25.27
€32.09
+27.0%
11.0%€38.00€24.00€18.4317
Aug ’24€27.41
€32.00
+16.7%
11.7%€38.00€22.50€18.0317
Jul ’24€27.23
€31.58
+16.0%
12.8%€38.00€22.00€15.9018
Jun ’24€25.93
€30.93
+19.3%
14.2%€38.00€22.00€17.8119
May ’24€22.80
€29.74
+30.4%
20.7%€38.00€14.00€14.8519
Apr ’24€24.91
€30.67
+23.1%
20.0%€38.00€14.00€14.0519
Mar ’24€27.78
€30.67
+10.4%
20.0%€38.00€14.00€12.2019
Feb ’24€27.29
€30.57
+12.0%
20.1%€38.00€14.00€11.8119
Jan ’24€22.85
€30.17
+32.1%
21.4%€38.00€14.00€12.1519
Dec ’23€24.76
€30.44
+22.9%
21.5%€38.00€14.00€11.6919

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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