Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V.

DB:4GF Stock Report

Market Cap: €12.0b

Grupo Carso. de Valuation

Is 4GF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4GF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4GF (€5.25) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€3.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4GF is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4GF?

Key metric: As 4GF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4GF. This is calculated by dividing 4GF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4GF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.4x
EarningsMex$14.05b
Market CapMex$262.17b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4GF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4GF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13x
SIE Siemens
17x5.9%€139.4b
MBB MBB
20.7x20.5%€557.8m
INH INDUS Holding
8.9x14.9%€546.9m
8TRA Traton
5.5x8.4%€14.1b
4GF Grupo Carso. de
19.4x15.6%€262.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4GF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x) compared to the peer average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4GF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Industrials Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4GF 19.4xIndustry Avg. 17.1xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4GF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x) compared to the European Industrials industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4GF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4GF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.4x
Fair PE Ratio22.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4GF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4GF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.25
€5.71
+8.8%
34.3%€8.20€3.41n/a3
Nov ’25€5.40
€5.71
+5.8%
34.3%€8.20€3.41n/a3
Oct ’25€5.45
€6.20
+13.7%
34.3%€8.90€3.70n/a3
Sep ’25€5.15
€6.20
+20.3%
34.3%€8.90€3.70n/a3
Aug ’25€6.00
€6.20
+3.3%
34.3%€8.90€3.70n/a3
Jul ’25€6.25
€6.78
+8.5%
33.8%€9.67€4.07n/a3
Jun ’25€7.40
€6.78
-8.4%
33.8%€9.67€4.07n/a3
May ’25€7.55
€6.52
-13.7%
30.9%€9.62€4.05n/a4
Apr ’25€8.10
€6.70
-17.3%
14.7%€8.03€5.67n/a3
Mar ’25€7.80
€6.70
-14.1%
14.7%€8.03€5.67n/a3
Feb ’25€8.60
€6.70
-22.1%
14.7%€8.03€5.67n/a3
Jan ’25€9.80
€6.70
-31.6%
14.7%€8.03€5.67n/a3
Dec ’24€8.40
€6.70
-20.2%
14.7%€8.03€5.67n/a3
Nov ’24€5.90
€5.60
-5.0%
10.6%€6.20€5.01€5.402
Oct ’24€6.90
€5.13
-25.7%
25.1%€6.59€3.46€5.453
Sep ’24€7.20
€4.00
-44.5%
21.3%€4.84€3.15€5.152
Aug ’24€7.10
€4.00
-43.7%
21.3%€4.84€3.15€6.002
Jul ’24€6.40
€4.00
-37.6%
21.3%€4.84€3.15€6.252
Jun ’24€5.50
€4.00
-27.4%
21.3%€4.84€3.15€7.402
May ’24€5.15
€4.00
-22.4%
21.3%€4.84€3.15€7.552
Apr ’24€4.62
€4.05
-12.4%
21.2%€4.91€3.19€8.102
Mar ’24€4.44
€3.30
-25.7%
12.7%€3.88€2.93€7.803
Feb ’24€4.58
€3.30
-28.0%
12.7%€3.88€2.93€8.603
Jan ’24€3.98
€3.35
-15.9%
13.0%€3.96€2.99€9.803
Dec ’23€4.22
€3.35
-20.7%
13.0%€3.96€2.99€8.403
Nov ’23€4.04
€3.35
-17.2%
13.0%€3.96€2.99€5.903

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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