Ameresco, Inc.

DB:4AM Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.3b

Ameresco Valuation

Is 4AM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4AM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 4AM's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 4AM's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4AM?

Key metric: As 4AM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4AM. This is calculated by dividing 4AM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4AM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.1x
EarningsUS$53.30m
Market CapUS$1.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4AM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4AM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average64.6x
NCH2 thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA
189.7x55.9%€1.1b
HOT HOCHTIEF
12.1x2.5%€8.8b
B5A0 BAUER
31.9x38.2%€174.3m
PFV Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology
24.6xn/a€1.5b
4AM Ameresco
28.1x34.0%€1.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4AM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the peer average (64.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4AM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Construction Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4AM 28.1xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies20PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4AM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the European Construction industry average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4AM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4AM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.1x
Fair PE Ratio28.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4AM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4AM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€24.86
€36.05
+45.0%
10.8%€41.29€26.89n/a11
Nov ’25€28.10
€35.22
+25.3%
8.6%€39.76€29.59n/a11
Oct ’25€33.72
€33.46
-0.8%
9.6%€38.70€28.80n/a11
Sep ’25€26.98
€33.40
+23.8%
9.4%€39.35€29.29n/a10
Aug ’25€29.10
€34.54
+18.7%
10.5%€40.42€29.40n/a10
Jul ’25€26.64
€34.13
+28.1%
12.4%€40.70€27.75n/a10
Jun ’25€33.32
€34.13
+2.4%
12.4%€40.70€27.75n/a10
May ’25€20.18
€32.86
+62.8%
11.5%€41.31€26.29n/a10
Apr ’25€22.45
€33.03
+47.1%
11.3%€40.27€25.63n/a11
Mar ’25€19.32
€34.82
+80.2%
10.6%€40.71€25.91n/a11
Feb ’25€18.84
€39.28
+108.5%
21.0%€62.49€27.57n/a12
Jan ’25€29.20
€40.59
+39.0%
23.0%€62.29€27.48n/a13
Dec ’24€27.25
€42.05
+54.3%
25.6%€63.54€27.10n/a13
Nov ’24€24.55
€57.39
+133.8%
17.3%€76.48€40.60€28.1014
Oct ’24€36.20
€59.45
+64.2%
12.6%€73.90€40.15€33.7213
Sep ’24€40.00
€59.45
+48.6%
12.6%€73.90€40.15€26.9813
Aug ’24€50.80
€59.18
+16.5%
13.1%€73.75€40.06€29.1013
Jul ’24€44.50
€58.23
+30.8%
15.3%€74.23€40.32€26.6413
Jun ’24€40.05
€59.34
+48.2%
15.7%€75.20€40.85€33.3212
May ’24€37.30
€58.00
+55.5%
15.3%€73.51€39.93€20.1812
Apr ’24€42.68
€62.42
+46.2%
15.0%€76.12€41.35€22.4512
Mar ’24€43.98
€62.23
+41.5%
15.6%€76.56€41.59€19.3212
Feb ’24€58.94
€69.40
+17.7%
15.6%€82.70€42.31€18.8412
Jan ’24€53.74
€69.40
+29.1%
15.6%€82.70€42.31€29.2012
Dec ’23€62.32
€69.40
+11.4%
15.6%€82.70€42.31€27.2512
Nov ’23€60.86
€75.75
+24.5%
8.9%€87.07€62.77€24.5511

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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