New Risk • Nov 21
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €93.6m (US$98.6m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (31% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (59% net debt to equity). Market cap is less than US$100m (€93.6m market cap, or US$98.6m). Announcement • Jul 24
Varta AG(XTRA:VAR1) dropped from S&P Global BMI Index Varta AG(XTRA:VAR1) dropped from S&P Global BMI Index New Risk • Jul 23
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €85.4m (US$92.6m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (24% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (59% net debt to equity). Market cap is less than US$100m (€85.4m market cap, or US$92.6m). Announcement • Jul 13
Varta AG to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Final Results on Aug 16, 2024 Varta AG announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 final results at 9:00 AM, Central European Standard Time on Aug 16, 2024 Announcement • May 11
Varta AG(XTRA:VAR1) dropped from Germany SDAX (Total Return) Index Varta AG has been dropped from Germany Small DAX (Total Return) Index (SDAX) . Announcement • Apr 23
Varta AG to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Jun 28, 2024 Varta AG announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results at 9:00 AM, Central European Standard Time on Jun 28, 2024 Price Target Changed • Apr 15
Price target decreased by 13% to €16.93 Down from €19.37, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 90% above last closing price of €8.94. Stock is down 65% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €2.07 next year compared to a net loss per share of €4.96 last year. New Risk • Apr 13
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of German stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (59% net debt to equity). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.5% increase in shares outstanding). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 16
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 31% to €16.18. The fair value is estimated to be €21.12, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 16% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 98% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Nov 19
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 59% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (59% net debt to equity). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.5% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: €0.13 loss per share (improved from €0.57 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: €234.8m (up 20% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: €5.40m (loss narrowed 76% from 3Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 72%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.8% growth forecast for the Electrical industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 64 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buying Opportunity • Oct 11
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 17%. The fair value is estimated to be €22.74, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.9% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 16% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 97% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Sep 21
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 3.9%. The fair value is estimated to be €22.53, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.9% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 16% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 97% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: €1.70 loss per share (vs €0.08 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: €1.70 loss per share (further deteriorated from €0.08 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: €191.0m (down 2.0% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: €72.6m (loss widened €69.4m from 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 8.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.4% growth forecast for the Electrical industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 50 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Jul 30
Price target decreased by 10% to €19.51 Down from €21.79, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 5.3% below last closing price of €20.60. Stock is down 74% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.87 next year compared to a net loss per share of €4.96 last year. Announcement • Jul 27
Varta AG Revises Earnings Guidance for the Year 2023 Varta AG revised earnings guidance for the year 2023. On the basis of preliminary figures, the company is revising its forecast for the 2023 financial year. The now expects sales at the lower end of the previous guidance of around EUR 820 million. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from €839.1m to €827.0m. Losses expected to increase from €1.55 per share to €1.87. Electrical industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 15% next year. Consensus price target down from €22.23 to €21.57. Share price was steady at €21.93 over the past week. New Risk • Jul 07
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 5.5% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.3% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.5% increase in shares outstanding). Price Target Changed • May 24
Price target decreased by 15% to €21.79 Down from €25.50, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 33% above last closing price of €16.38. Stock is down 79% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.55 next year compared to a net loss per share of €4.96 last year. Major Estimate Revision • May 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 63% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from €864.1m to €848.3m. Losses expected to increase from €0.95 per share to €1.55. Electrical industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 15% next year. Consensus price target down from €25.51 to €23.94. Share price fell 6.0% to €18.72 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 01
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: €4.96 loss per share (down from €3.12 profit in FY 2021). Revenue: €896.5m (down 1.7% from FY 2021). Net loss: €200.4m (down 259% from profit in FY 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 102%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Electrical industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 36% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 31% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 21
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to €23.80, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 32.1x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 60% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 12
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to €1.21 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2022 has been updated. 2022 losses forecast to reduce from -€1.35 to -€1.21 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €809.0m. Electrical industry in Germany expected to see average net income decline 23% next year. Consensus price target of €27.06 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.4% to €27.81 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 04
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to €25.59, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 34.5x. Average forward P/E is 24x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 71% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 16
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 20% share price decline to €23.47, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 31.6x. Average forward P/E is 23x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 79% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 23
Consensus EPS estimates have been downgraded. The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €826.4m to €814.7m. Now expected to report a loss of €1.21 per share instead of €0.10 per share profit previously forecast. Electrical industry in Germany expected to see average net income decline 23% next year. Consensus price target down from €33.25 to €29.69. Share price fell 2.4% to €29.10 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 18
Price target decreased to €29.69 Down from €33.25, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €30.15. Stock is down 74% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.63 compared to earnings per share of €3.12 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: €0.57 loss per share (vs €0.74 profit in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: €0.57 loss per share (down from €0.74 profit in 3Q 2021). Revenue: €256.6m (up 14% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: €22.9m (down 176% from profit in 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.8% growth forecast for the Electrical industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €32.81 Down from €36.69, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 10% above last closing price of €29.82. Stock is down 74% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.097 for next year compared to €3.12 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 11
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 19% share price gain to €33.87, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 64x. Average forward P/E is 26x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 66% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 03
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from €0.17 to €0.23. Revenue forecast unchanged at €826.4m. Net income forecast to shrink 65% next year vs 33% decline forecast for Electrical industry in Germany. Consensus price target down from €36.69 to €33.25. Share price fell 3.9% to €27.25 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €847.8m to €815.4m. EPS estimate also fell from €1.01 per share to €0.90 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 35% next year vs 29% decline forecast for Electrical industry in Germany. Consensus price target of €52.81 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 8.5% to €27.64 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €905.2m to €866.0m. EPS estimate also fell from €1.50 per share to €1.29 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 25% next year vs 16% decline forecast for Electrical industry in Germany. Consensus price target down from €78.78 to €64.94. Share price fell 41% to €35.64 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 26
Price target decreased to €64.94 Down from €81.03, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 76% above last closing price of €36.99. Stock is down 69% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.60 for next year compared to €3.12 last year. Buying Opportunity • Sep 23
Now 29% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 54%. The fair value is estimated to be €54.59, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 33% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 18% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 19% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 10
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from €1.61 to €1.42. Revenue forecast unchanged from €905.2m at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 11% next year vs 14% decline forecast for Electrical industry in Germany. Consensus price target down from €81.03 to €78.78. Share price fell 3.1% to €63.66 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 22
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from €2.01 to €1.61 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €906.8m. Net income forecast to shrink 34% next year vs 3.2% decline forecast for Electrical industry in Germany. Consensus price target of €82.53 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 8.6% to €73.24 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 02
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €962.8m to €923.3m. EPS estimate also fell from €2.59 per share to €2.14 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 15% next year vs 2.3% decline forecast for Electrical industry in Germany. Consensus price target down from €99.86 to €85.06. Share price rose 3.6% to €75.84 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 01
Price target decreased to €85.06 Down from €99.25, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of €76.44. Stock is down 49% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of €3.12 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 15
Upcoming dividend of €2.48 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 June 2022. Payment date: 24 June 2022. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 93% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.0%. Lower than top quartile of German dividend payers (4.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.1%). Price Target Changed • May 19
Price target decreased to €94.38 Down from €103, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of €77.24. Stock is down 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.66 for next year compared to €3.12 last year. Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: €208.3m (up 1.6% from 1Q 2021). Net income: €6.03m (down 75% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 12% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the industry in Germany. Buying Opportunity • May 12
Now 25% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 21%. The fair value is estimated to be €97.06, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 44% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 40%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 14% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 8.4% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Apr 08
Price target decreased to €103 Down from €113, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of €91.46. Stock is down 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.18 for next year compared to €3.12 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 02
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: €3.12 (up from €2.36 in FY 2020). Revenue: €984.3m (up 13% from FY 2020). Net income: €126.0m (up 32% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 13% (up from 11% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 14%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 18%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to stay flat compared to a 15% growth forecast for the industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 30% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Apr 01
Price target decreased to €107 Down from €116, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of €89.96. Stock is down 29% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.98 for next year compared to €2.36 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 24
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to €89.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 27x. Average forward P/E is 27x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders of 190% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a soft third quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €267.5m (up 11% from 3Q 2020). Net income: €30.3m (down 21% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 11% (down from 16% in 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 52% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 61% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 05
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 17% share price decline to €111, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders of 295% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.53 (vs €0.38 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €215.8m (up 11% from 2Q 2020). Net income: €21.2m (up 39% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 9.8% (up from 7.9% in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 53% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 81% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 13
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to €136, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 37x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders of 501% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €187 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 12
Upcoming dividend of €2.48 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 18 June 2021. Payment date: 22 June 2021. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of German dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a mediocre first quarter result with weaker profit margins, although earnings were flat and revenues improved. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €215.4m (up 7.9% from 1Q 2020). Net income: €24.3m (flat on 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 11% (down from 12% in 1Q 2020). Reported Earnings • Apr 04
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €2.36 (vs €1.28 in FY 2019) The company reported a solid full year result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €874.6m (up 138% from FY 2019). Net income: €95.4m (up 89% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 11% (down from 14% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 81% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 17
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to €128, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34x. Average forward P/E is 31x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders of 574% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €195 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 23
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 26% share price decline to €117, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 66.7x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 90.7x. This compares to an average P/E of 46x in the Electrical industry in Germany. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 481%. Price Target Changed • Feb 19
Price target lowered to €115 Down from €124, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. The new target price is 14% below the current share price of €134. As of last close, the stock is up 57% over the past year.