Stock Analysis

2.3% earnings growth over 5 years has not materialized into gains for SMT Scharf (ETR:S4AA) shareholders over that period

XTRA:S4AA
Source: Shutterstock

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term SMT Scharf AG (ETR:S4AA) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 49% over a half decade. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 33%. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 14%.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for SMT Scharf isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

See our latest analysis for SMT Scharf

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, SMT Scharf actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 12% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

Revenue is actually up 7.8% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
XTRA:S4AA Earnings and Revenue Growth August 9th 2023

It is of course excellent to see how SMT Scharf has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling SMT Scharf stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 7.7% in the last year, SMT Scharf shareholders lost 33%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for SMT Scharf (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.