Northrop Grumman Corporation

XTRA:NTH Stock Report

Market Cap: €67.5b

Northrop Grumman Valuation

Is NTH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NTH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NTH (€520) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€767.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NTH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NTH?

Key metric: As NTH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NTH. This is calculated by dividing NTH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NTH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30x
EarningsUS$2.38b
Market CapUS$71.26b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NTH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NTH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.3x
RHM Rheinmetall
39.3x29.0%€26.9b
MTX MTU Aero Engines
23.8x11.1%€16.8b
OHB OHB
12.8x11.0%€892.5m
ENR Siemens Energy
33.2x23.4%€39.4b
NTH Northrop Grumman
30x12.1%€71.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NTH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the peer average (27.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NTH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Aerospace & Defense Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NTH 30.0xIndustry Avg. 24.6xNo. of Companies9PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NTH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the European Aerospace & Defense industry average (24.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NTH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NTH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30x
Fair PE Ratio23.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NTH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NTH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€461.20
€539.35
+16.9%
7.7%€613.74€427.62n/a23
Nov ’25€470.20
€516.89
+9.9%
8.3%€591.17€411.89n/a22
Oct ’25€495.30
€473.11
-4.5%
10.0%€554.69€359.55n/a22
Sep ’25€469.50
€476.41
+1.5%
9.4%€554.12€364.53n/a22
Aug ’25€450.50
€481.28
+6.8%
9.5%€559.63€368.15n/a21
Jul ’25€405.90
€466.74
+15.0%
10.5%€552.26€368.79n/a22
Jun ’25€414.20
€465.72
+12.4%
10.3%€541.65€366.66n/a21
May ’25€452.00
€466.44
+3.2%
10.3%€545.63€369.35n/a22
Apr ’25€442.80
€448.44
+1.3%
11.4%€567.52€355.28n/a22
Mar ’25€421.50
€448.68
+6.4%
11.6%€567.03€354.97n/a22
Feb ’25€410.10
€450.82
+9.9%
11.6%€567.83€355.47n/a22
Jan ’25€440.00
€455.83
+3.6%
11.1%€563.34€349.91n/a22
Dec ’24€425.70
€470.13
+10.4%
11.1%€575.03€357.17n/a21
Nov ’24€445.00
€475.01
+6.7%
11.1%€581.11€360.95€470.2021
Oct ’24€417.60
€470.86
+12.8%
11.5%€585.42€365.53€495.3020
Sep ’24€404.20
€456.40
+12.9%
11.4%€564.88€352.70€469.5019
Aug ’24€408.50
€454.13
+11.2%
11.3%€559.28€349.21€450.5019
Jul ’24€416.30
€461.65
+10.9%
13.3%€602.67€353.32€405.9019
Jun ’24€407.30
€470.07
+15.4%
13.4%€612.88€359.31€414.2019
May ’24€414.20
€464.59
+12.2%
13.0%€594.41€348.48€452.0019
Apr ’24€425.15
€474.68
+11.6%
13.4%€608.76€341.09€442.8019
Mar ’24€434.35
€475.68
+9.5%
13.8%€610.53€342.08€421.5018
Feb ’24€407.45
€470.17
+15.4%
14.0%€596.25€334.08€410.1018
Jan ’24€507.10
€526.97
+3.9%
12.5%€658.77€346.32€440.0019
Dec ’23€501.70
€530.73
+5.8%
12.8%€672.28€353.43€425.7018
Nov ’23€557.40
€544.17
-2.4%
13.1%€708.68€372.56€445.0018

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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