NORMA Group SE Just Missed Revenue By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

NORMA Group SE (ETR:NOEJ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.0% to €12.94 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues were €198m, 16% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of €0.04 being in line with what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, NORMA Group's five analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €1.10b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with NORMA Group forecast to report a statutory profit of €1.18 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.27 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

View our latest analysis for NORMA Group

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of €17.44, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on NORMA Group's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NORMA Group at €24.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €7.90. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.1% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.5% per year. It's pretty clear that NORMA Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €17.44, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NORMA Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with NORMA Group , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.