Aumann AG Just Missed Revenue By 11%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of Aumann AG (ETR:AAG) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to €12.38 following its latest quarterly results. Revenues were €39m, 11% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of €0.72 being in line with what the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aumann

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Aumann's five analysts is for revenues of €199.8m in 2021, which would reflect a notable 8.9% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Aumann is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.32 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €201.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.33 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €12.75, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aumann at €16.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €7.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Aumann's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 8.9% increase next year well below the historical 12%p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while Aumann's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aumann. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Aumann going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Aumann that you need to take into consideration.

If you decide to trade Aumann, use the lowest-cost* platform that is rated #1 Overall by Barron’s, Interactive Brokers. Trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds on 135 markets, all from a single integrated account. Promoted

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
^*Interactive Brokers Rated Lowest Cost Broker by StockBrokers.com Annual Online Review 2020

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.