First BanCorp.

DB:OLWN Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.3b

First BanCorp Valuation

Is OLWN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OLWN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OLWN (€19.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€52.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OLWN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OLWN?

Key metric: As OLWN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OLWN. This is calculated by dividing OLWN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OLWN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.5x
EarningsUS$302.51m
Market CapUS$3.47b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OLWN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OLWN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7x
CBK Commerzbank
8.5x8.8%€18.2b
FINN First National of Nebraska
11.6xn/aUS$3.3b
1963 Bank of Chongqing
3.8xn/aHK$27.3b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.2x9.9%€450.0m
OLWN First BanCorp
11.5x1.5%€3.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OLWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the peer average (7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OLWN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OLWN 11.5xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OLWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OLWN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OLWN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.5x
Fair PE Ratio9.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OLWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OLWN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€19.50
€21.72
+11.4%
8.3%€23.61€18.88n/a6
Nov ’25€17.70
€21.15
+19.5%
7.8%€23.16€18.53n/a6
Oct ’25€18.90
€21.38
+13.1%
5.3%€22.59€19.87n/a6
Sep ’25€19.10
€20.90
+9.4%
7.7%€22.40€17.92n/a6
Aug ’25€19.80
€21.80
+10.1%
7.9%€23.10€18.48n/a5
Jul ’25€16.90
€19.03
+12.6%
5.9%€19.59€16.79n/a5
Jun ’25€16.20
€19.03
+17.5%
5.9%€19.59€16.79n/a5
May ’25€16.30
€19.03
+16.7%
5.9%€19.59€16.79n/a5
Apr ’25€16.00
€17.43
+8.9%
8.6%€19.37€14.76n/a5
Mar ’25€15.70
€17.43
+11.0%
8.6%€19.37€14.76n/a5
Feb ’25€15.40
€17.43
+13.2%
8.6%€19.37€14.76n/a5
Jan ’25€15.10
€15.76
+4.4%
7.3%€16.92€13.65n/a5
Dec ’24€13.70
€15.29
+11.6%
10.6%€16.88€12.19n/a5
Nov ’24€12.60
€15.29
+21.3%
10.6%€16.88€12.19€17.705
Oct ’24€12.90
€14.73
+14.2%
11.8%€16.37€11.37€18.905
Sep ’24€12.70
€14.73
+16.0%
11.8%€16.37€11.37€19.105
Aug ’24€13.50
€14.73
+9.1%
11.8%€16.37€11.37€19.805
Jul ’24€11.30
€13.16
+16.5%
9.1%€14.94€11.67€16.905
Jun ’24€10.40
€12.87
+23.7%
9.6%€14.50€11.33€16.205
May ’24€10.50
€12.87
+22.6%
9.6%€14.50€11.33€16.305
Apr ’24€10.00
€14.02
+40.2%
9.7%€15.68€12.92€16.005
Mar ’24€13.60
€14.57
+7.1%
7.4%€15.67€12.91€15.705
Feb ’24€12.30
€14.57
+18.4%
7.4%€15.67€12.91€15.405
Jan ’24€12.00
€16.19
+34.9%
10.0%€17.88€13.18€15.105
Dec ’23€14.70
€18.34
+24.8%
4.2%€19.58€17.52€13.705
Nov ’23€15.90
€18.34
+15.4%
4.2%€19.58€17.52€12.605

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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