China Merchants Bank Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

China Merchants Bank is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.4% and 9.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.5% in 3 years.

Key information

6.4%

Earnings growth rate

5.5%

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth	0.05%
Revenue growth rate	9.1%
Future return on equity	13.5%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	18 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

DB:M4BB - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	373,132	160,460	N/A	N/A	11
12/31/2025	347,255	150,276	N/A	N/A	11
12/31/2024	334,593	145,143	N/A	N/A	10
9/30/2024	293,749	141,338	-287,874	-252,275	N/A
6/30/2024	296,564	141,035	-281,468	-248,115	N/A
3/31/2024	295,796	141,282	-456,147	-424,328	N/A
12/31/2023	297,800	142,044	-292,104	-261,943	N/A
9/30/2023	294,066	137,768	-327,272	-297,089	N/A
6/30/2023	298,165	137,132	-682,929	-654,793	N/A
3/31/2023	291,508	135,592	-715,361	-680,169	N/A
12/31/2022	287,989	132,775	-653,413	-618,521	N/A
9/30/2022	283,106	129,616	-527,193	-496,829	N/A
6/30/2022	274,581	124,579	271,737	306,350	N/A
3/31/2022	271,538	120,316	240,219	269,542	N/A
12/31/2021	265,291	116,309	157,888	182,048	N/A
9/30/2021	251,808	112,703	256,406	283,882	N/A
6/30/2021	244,555	107,053	151,483	173,396	N/A
3/31/2021	233,684	99,911	430,338	452,410	N/A
12/31/2020	225,611	95,691	402,203	421,328	N/A
9/30/2020	216,232	90,561	698,861	718,512	N/A
6/30/2020	212,298	90,373	289,189	313,709	N/A
3/31/2020	212,598	93,752	-137,824	-115,116	N/A
12/31/2019	208,954	91,197	-19,532	4,432	N/A
9/30/2019	207,041	88,760	-273,587	-252,080	N/A
6/30/2019	198,460	84,757	-43,155	-25,120	N/A
3/31/2019	193,427	81,467	-192,345	-177,898	N/A
12/31/2018	187,726	78,901	-53,213	-35,721	N/A
9/30/2018	181,447	78,725	62,344	81,292	N/A
6/30/2018	174,821	75,647	N/A	-15,408	N/A
3/31/2018	167,334	72,847	N/A	178,245	N/A
12/31/2017	160,971	70,150	N/A	-5,660	N/A
9/30/2017	152,083	68,744	N/A	-181,102	N/A
6/30/2017	146,471	66,109	N/A	123,835	N/A
3/31/2017	143,689	63,708	N/A	-47,926	N/A
12/31/2016	143,561	62,081	N/A	-120,615	N/A
9/30/2016	143,280	61,338	N/A	-79,998	N/A
6/30/2016	144,311	59,951	N/A	-221,181	N/A
3/31/2016	143,937	58,826	N/A	84,607	N/A
12/31/2015	142,204	57,696	N/A	400,420	N/A
9/30/2015	143,425	58,607	N/A	297,063	N/A
6/30/2015	141,207	58,428	N/A	184,668	N/A
3/31/2015	138,742	58,186	N/A	244,298	N/A
12/31/2014	134,182	55,911	N/A	272,173	N/A
9/30/2014	136,049	58,049	N/A	263,849	N/A
6/30/2014	131,231	55,931	N/A	577,570	N/A
3/31/2014	127,045	53,667	N/A	173,019	N/A
12/31/2013	122,389	51,743	N/A	119,153	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: M4BB's forecast earnings growth (6.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1%).

Earnings vs Market: M4BB's earnings (6.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (20.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: M4BB's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: M4BB's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: M4BB's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: M4BB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/26 09:58
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

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Industry and Sector Metrics

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Analyst Sources

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. is covered by 83 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Yu Hang Au	ABCI Securities Company Limited
Yi Guo	Avic Securities Co., Ltd
Meizhi Yan	Barclays