Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, ElringKlinger AG (ETR:ZIL2) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is ElringKlinger's Debt?
As you can see below, ElringKlinger had €454.8m of debt at September 2023, down from €490.0m a year prior. On the flip side, it has €139.2m in cash leading to net debt of about €315.6m.
A Look At ElringKlinger's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, ElringKlinger had liabilities of €701.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of €438.8m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of €139.2m and €282.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €718.2m.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €379.2m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, ElringKlinger would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
ElringKlinger's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.9 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 3.0 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. We also note that ElringKlinger improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive €170m. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine ElringKlinger's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, ElringKlinger reported free cash flow worth 20% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say ElringKlinger's level of total liabilities was disappointing. Having said that, its ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that ElringKlinger's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with ElringKlinger , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:ZIL2
ElringKlinger
Develops, manufactures, and sells components, modules, and systems for the automotive industry in Germany, the Asia-Pacific, North America, rest of Europe, South America, and internationally.
Undervalued with excellent balance sheet.